Catch a Wave: ‘Silver tsunami’ in housing on pause as older generation moves at its own pace

Every day, 10,000 Americans turn 65, according to data from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, and local developers are betting on some of them looking for new living spaces.

In 2018, Springfield Business Journal published an article titled “On Watch for the Silver Tsunami” on the projected boom of senior housing developments in the area ready to welcome newly minted retirees.

U.S. Census Bureau figures from 2021, the latest data available, show 15.9% of Springfield’s 169,700 population is aged 65 or over. Of these, 3,111 seniors still work. Some 16% of residents ages 60 and older received food stamps in the last year. Among senior homeowners, 30% were still paying off a mortgage.

According to the 2022 University of Michigan National Poll on Healthy Aging, nine out of 10 Americans between the ages of 50 and 80 wish to remain in their homes as they grow older – though 47% said they had given little thought to how to do so, and only 34% said their home has what it needs to allow them to age in place.

Additionally, 2022 data from investment management company Merrill finds more than half of retirees ages 50 and over move into smaller homes after retirement, but a majority wish to age in place.

At the time of SBJ’s initial reporting, it seemed developers were betting on a change of heart. The story reported that just-completed facilities for the older population included 31 duplexes in the $7.5 million Tera Vera development, 36 independent living units in the $5.3 million McClernon Villas and a mix of 104 independent living, assisted living and memory care beds in the $18.8 million Castlewood Senior Living.

Also under construction were Turners Rock, Turners Pointe, Mission Ridge, The Township Senior Living and Copper Rock. Some, like The Township, are completely finished; some, like Copper Rock, are opening in stages.

Still others, like Mission Ridge, are scheduled to open soon; the Mission Ridge website touts a mid-year opening.

According to some developers, baby boomers will not be pushed to leave their homes. If anyone wants to make a profit off this generation, those born 1946-1964, it will be on their timeline.

In SBJ’s list research of the area’s largest retirement communities published Feb. 20, the largest 19 independent retirement communities in the area comprised 1,973 units, with 1,882 residents, though four of the smaller developments declined to disclose their occupancy rates.

Room sizes and prices in the top 20 facilities varied greatly, from a monthly range of $465-$925 for the Villas at Lark Point to $2,128-$4,695 at Creekside at Elfindale.

According to the 2020 American Community Survey of the U.S. Census Bureau, those Springfield residents who are older than 65 earn an average annual income of $34,243. A common rule of thumb is that only 30% of one’s budget should be spent on rent and utilities, and 30% of that average income equates to $856 per month – and that limits options for many older residents.

Luxury living
The Preston, a $20 million, four-story structure described in its promotional materials as a premier 55-plus luxury living community, opened in November 2022 – which its developers, Weller Senior Living LLC, note is a tough time to open an apartment building.  As it turns out, rental activity ebbs and flows with the season, and hardly anyone wants to move into an apartment in the snow and slush, or during the holidays, according to Steve Ehrhardt, one of the partners in the venture.

The development company comprises three Springfield residents, Steve Trotter, Steve Ehrhardt and Jeff Boyce, and Waynesville hotelier Rick Morris.

Selena Castillo is The Preston’s community membership director, and she’s trying to fill the building. There are 100 suites, and in March she reported she still had 92 to fill, but 12 more tenants have signed on since then, for a 20% occupancy rate.

The Preston is offering a deal to entice new residents: three months free with a 15-month signing. Prices start at $3,750 a month, a cost that includes three chef-prepared meals daily, though each apartment has a full kitchen for those who like to enjoy some meals in.

The list of amenities is long, with numerous health, wellness and entertainment offerings. But resident Barbara Haun said she was won over by The Preston’s design.

“This is what I was looking for. I knew it the minute I stepped into the lobby,” she said. “It’s contemporary. Everything else looks like my grandma.”

Haun’s assessment signals that the generation that brought us Woodstock may not be keen on rocking chairs with gingham cushions, which is why the sleek gray, silver and white furnishings in The Preston hit the mark with her.

In March, June Williams toured The Preston with her friend, Lettie Blackburn. Blackburn said the two go back and forth between their homes and enjoy a glass of scotch together, but she is trying to push Williams out of her nest and into a community.

Williams asked questions about parking – her car has never spent a night in the elements, she said – and about what residents do if it gets to the point that they need some assistive care. The Preston is intended for people who are able to live independently, according to its development team, and assisted living is not offered.

A month later, Williams has not signed with The Preston.

Affordable housing shortage
Nancy Masner, housing program director for the Ozarks Area Community Action Corp., said there is a waiting list for affordable housing for the population identified by OACAC as older adults – 65 and older.

On the list in March were 153 seeking a one-bedroom apartment, nine seeking a two-bedroom and two each seeking three- or four-bedroom housing. If the latter categories bring an image of “The Golden Girls” to mind, that’s probably not accurate; it is likely that these older tenants are raising grandchildren instead of enjoying raucous adventures followed by cheesecake in the kitchen.

While the 30% rule seems untenable in the Springfield-area market to Masner, she does think tenants should keep a limit in mind.

“If it’s going to take more than half of someone’s monthly income, it makes me wonder,” she said.

Masner said many people who rely on Social Security income struggle to find accommodations. According to the Social Security Administration, the current average monthly Supplemental Security Income payment is $554.

“We’re seeing a lot more elderly applicants coming to our waiting list,” she said, adding most face a wait of a year to 18 months.

“Housing availability for any age is pretty limited,” she said.

Distinctive needs
Jessi Whitten, chief of operations for Coryell Collaborative Group, said the baby boomer population seems to be deliberate in its choices.

“They do have interest, but they do take a lot longer to make those decisions,” she said. “There have been people we’ve been talking to for years.”

She said younger market-rate renters are ready to make a move three months out, if not 30 days – “Or, ‘I need to move now!’” she said.

Not so with boomers.

“They’re very knowledgeable and educated,” she said. “They’ve lived life; they don’t make snap decisions.”

The COVID-19 pandemic put a pause on some boomers’ plans, she said, as they reassessed the economy. Whitten said her group had one property that opened in 2016 that was fully leased within nine months, but everything came to a halt in 2020, and some properties that opened after that are slower to fill.

“They’re hesitant,” she said. “There’s a lot of great interest, but it takes more time and coaxing to get them to commit.”

Sam Coryell, president of Coryell Collaborative Group, said he thinks research is needed to determine the extent of the effects of COVID-19 on society.

“There’s a hesitancy to make big decisions right now,” he said. “It’s a wait-and-see attitude. They want to hang onto their money, and they don’t want to spend unless it’s absolutely necessary.”

He noted one Coryell project, The Monarch on Sunset Street and Campbell Avenue, is 83%-85% filled.

“That’s not bad, but we’ve been stuck there about nine months,” he said in March.  “There’s a leasing season and it’s not winter. But the weather’s going to break here soon, and we’ll see the needle start moving again.”

In SBJ’s 2018 article, Arrow Senior Living CEO Stephanie Harris, operator for local O’Reilly Development Co. LLC projects, was quoted as saying that only 10% of older adults even consider senior living.

“Every senior living community in this country would fill up with a waiting list if the demand grew by even 1%,” she said at the time.