Livestock farmers might find 2003 prices brighter

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Between 1996 and 2000, the number of Missouri livestock farms with operations in beef cows, milk cows, hogs and sheep declined, according to the most recent data available from the Missouri Agricultural Statistics Service Web site.|ret||ret||tab|

Beef cow operations declined from 63,000 to 58,000; milk cow farms shrank from 4,800 to 3,900; hog operations were almost halved, from 7,000 to 3,600, and sheep farms went from 2,300 to 1,800.|ret||ret||tab|

"The number of farms keeps declining, but if you add up man hours, it's not going down. We produce more food to feed more people," said Ron Plain, professor of agricultural economics at the University of Missouri and a livestock-marketing specialist for University Outreach and Extension. The amount of labor holds steady or goes up somewhat, in part due to mechanization, he added. |ret||ret||tab|

2002|ret||ret||tab|

"This turned out to be kind of a tough year for livestock producers," Plain said. "We had dry weather and a short corn crop." The result: feed prices are up. |ret||ret||tab|

The summer drought throughout the corn belt negatively affected yields in grain, wheat, corn, sorghum and soybean, Plain said. The net result is that "prices are fairly strong" for most of these crops with some at about the highest level they've been at in four years, he added.|ret||ret||tab|

"Increased cost of production produced red ink and caused livestock producers to lose money, so they're cutting back, and that's going to give less meat and less milk on the market in 2003 and that's what's going to push prices up next year," Plain said.|ret||ret||tab|

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A look ahead|ret||ret||tab|

Those expected price increases, if realized, should bode well for Missouri's livestock farmers in 2003.|ret||ret||tab|

Plain expects milk prices to increase by about 50 cents per hundredweight to roughly $13. For feeder cattle, he said $95 to $97 per hundredweight is likely. |ret||ret||tab|

Hog producers lost money this year due to an abundance of hogs, Plain said, but since breeding inventories are low, prices should climb from 2002's $34 per hundredweight to a potential high of $39 per hundredweight in 2003. |ret||ret||tab|

Chicken, likewise, should see a price increase from 2002's dressed chicken price of $55 per hundredweight to about $60 per hundredweight for 2003, Plain said.|ret||ret||tab|

"We're expecting the price to be higher because we're expecting less of them."|ret||ret||tab|

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An alternative method|ret||ret||tab|

For livestock and dairy farmers, one method that might obtain a higher price for their product is to reduce the amount of grain they buy through rotating animals on smaller, fenced-off paddocks on a daily basis, Plain said.|ret||ret||tab|

Rick Hopkins, president of American Pasturage Inc. runs 57 beef cattle along with 16 sheep and a few goats on a 100-acre farm near Marionville and uses a "managed grazing system" for his animals. |ret||ret||tab|

This shift cut Hopkins' hay demand to less than a third of what it was the previous year and allowed him to hike his cattle number. He also cut back on purchases of mineral and feed supplements and animal drugs.|ret||ret||tab|

In the past, Hopkins said, he might take a 7-month-old calf to a sales barn and sell it for $400. Today he holds the animal until it's larger to realize cash gains. |ret||ret||tab|

"If I hold that animal to 24 months and it costs me roughly $150 to keep that animal that much longer, and then I turn around and I direct market it, that animal will retail at $2,200," Hopkins said.|ret||ret||tab|

Bill Roy, animal health specialist at Race Brothers Farm Supply, who's raised both cattle and hogs, said animal rotation allows the farmer to achieve better land efficiency, but other health considerations still pretain.|ret||ret||tab|

He said that however a farmer runs his animals, he wouldn't think there would be a significant difference in the amount of feed or medication used. |ret||ret||tab|

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