Clerk: Who shows up to vote impossible to predict

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2022 Election Coverage

The latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, from 2021, puts the population of Greene County at roughly 301,000, and 201,000 of them are registered voters.

Shane Schoeller, Greene County Clerk of Courts, is gearing up for the Nov. 8 election, but even though he is a member of the U.S. Election Assistance Commission Technical Guidelines Development Committee and immediate past president of the Missouri Association of County Clerks and Election Authorities, he did not hazard a guess at trends this year’s polling might reflect.

Nationally, abortion is seen as a leading issue to get people, especially women, to the polls, even if the issue doesn’t appear on the ballot. Even so, Schoeller said turnout for the August primary did not reflect this popular assessment.

That primary came more than a month after the June 24 ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court that overturned abortion rights with its decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization.

“We have not seen anything yet that would say there’s a strong correlation between the Dobbs decision and voter turnout in August,” he said. “It remains to be seen what happens in November.”

Schoeller could have “Remains to be Seen” emblazoned on a T-shirt and wear it as his Election Day uniform. His outlook seems to be one of curiosity as he prepares for the second Tuesday in November.

“Right now, the economy is driving,” he said. “Historically, the economy always has driven elections.”

He noted a little over 53% of registered voters are female, while 46.6% are male. Voters have to check one of the two boxes on the Missouri voter registration form. Only age and gender are captured with registration. Because the state does not have a closed primary, meaning voters may request any party’s ballot in primary elections, there is no record of party on registration rolls.

Getting the party started
This year’s primary election offers some data on the Greene County voter, though Schoeller is quick to note that each election is different.

There was a 24% turnout in the primary, with 47,219 ballots cast. Greene County chose the Republican ballot by a three-to-one margin, with 34,000 Republican and 13,000 Democratic votes cast. Another 1,359 voters went for third-party candidates.

Turnout was higher in the August 2020 primary at 32%. That was a U.S. presidential primary, and voter enthusiasm trends higher when the top spot is up for grabs.

The 2020 primary saw a larger percentage of Democrats, though Republicans still dominated, with 32,000 voters choosing the GOP ballot and 20,000 going Democratic. The Republican candidate, Donald Trump, was a known quantity. By the time the Missouri primary rolled around, Joe Biden had been the presumptive Democratic nominee for four months.

“Part of the challenge when you have a primary is that if one party doesn’t have a real contested race, you’ll see people migrate to another party’s ballot,” Schoeller said. “It’s really hard in that contest to know what is an accurate read.”

Generational trends
Schoeller offered an age breakdown for registered voters as of Oct. 14, 2022, though he noted not everyone who registers actually votes.

Voters 17-40 make up 38% of registered voters in Greene County (voters may register at 17 if they will be 18 on Election Day), and a July report by Bloomberg Government noted turnout by young voters will be pivotal in the 2022 election.

“In terms of outcomes, the sitting president’s party typically fares poorly in midterm elections,” the study notes. “Younger voters also tend to lean more Democratic than older voters. Precedent and any hit to the younger voter turnout in 2022 could spell trouble for President Joe Biden and Democrats.”

There appears to be a changing of the guard in Greene County, with the highest voter bloc in the 20-29 age range just over 37,000, or roughly 19% of the voting public. Voters under 40 number 76,314.

Schoeller said when he began to be involved in campaigns in the late 1990s, there was a lot of talk about how people were voting based on issues rather than party. He pointed out that very few political signs today bear the elephant or donkey logo associated with Republicans and Democrats, respectively.

He noted it’s important to get young people familiar with issues and candidates.

“Do they feel comfortable enough to let their voice be heard?” he said. “That can make a big difference in terms of younger individuals making decisions to vote.”

Voter uncertainty
Schoeller said a lot of people wonder if their votes really matter.

“I try to emphasize that we’ve had tight elections – elections decided by one vote,” he said. “There really is an opportunity to potentially make an election-changing choice by showing up to vote.”

It happens especially with school boards and city councils, he noted.

“It’s just a reminder of how important it is to let your voice be heard,” he said.

Some voters remain concerned about election security, Schoeller said, and he noted it’s an issue he takes seriously. He said bipartisan teams work each precinct and election equipment is thoroughly tested in the weeks leading up to the election, and again afterwards with manual count teams. Precincts are randomly chosen for equipment checks on election night, and manual counts are conducted to verify the votes cast.

Schoeller said anyone can go to a party chair and sign up to observe, and people also may be part of counting teams or witnesses to the counting.

“That’s where I gain a great amount of confidence,” he said.

Schoeller offered the reminder that voting is about resolving differences, locally or nationally.

“People forget our Founding Fathers saw election resolution as less conflict than war,” he said. “Let’s have our issues resolved at the ballot box. As a nation, most people recognize we’re at a point in time where opinions are very strong, and margins are very close. We can’t let that intensity in terms of how we feel about an issue or candidate get away from letting that be resolved at the ballot box.”

Added Schoeller, “Dissatisfied or satisfied, you can come back next year if it’s a local election or two years later if it’s state or federal and let your voice be heard again.”