Room for Optimism: Local officials express tempered economic confidence amid challenges

David Mitchell: Controlling inflation is like “trying to grab a snake covered in axle grease.”

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David Mitchell’s confidence level in the economy is tempered.

“It’s kind of a wait and see,” said the professor of economics and director of the Bureau of Economic Research and Center for Economic Education at Missouri State University.

“The problem is inflation,” he added. “I’ve been harping on inflation for a really long time. It’s like trying to grab a snake covered in axle grease. It’s incredibly slippery, and you just can’t get a hold of it, and it gets away from you really quickly.”

Inflation continues rising. While the leader of the U.S. Federal Reserve changed recently, the decision to hold the line on interest rates last month remained the same. The unanimous vote by the Federal Open Market Committee kept the federal funds rate, which affects borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, in its current range of 3.5% to 3.75%.

Mitchell said the June 17 decision of the FOMC, now led by Chair Kevin Warsh, was largely expected. While Mitchell said the Fed’s goal to hold inflation to an average of 2% over the long term is still difficult to achieve anytime soon, he said locally there are still signs of economic confidence. For example, the Springfield metropolitan statistical area’s job growth rate increased around 1.1% year-over-year. Area employment levels in May 2026 were at 239,099, up from 236,323 in May 2025, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

“It’s fairly decent, especially compared to some of what you’ve seen happening nationwide,” he said.

Total nonfarm payroll employment nationally was up 57,000 jobs in June. That fell significantly short of analysts’ projections of 115,000, according to the BLS. The June total is roughly in line with the average monthly job gain of 36,000 over the prior 12 months.

Inflationary concerns

The consumer price index increased 0.5% in May, compared with a 0.6% rise in April, according to the latest BLS report. The year-over-year increase was 4.2%, up from 3.8% in April. The current inflation rate is at its highest level since April 2023. The index for energy prices alone accounted for over 60% of the increase from April, with prices rising 3.9%.

The global energy market is impacted by the ongoing war in Iran, which has gone on longer than anticipated, said Matt Morrow, Springfield Area Chamber of Commerce president and CEO. Locally, he said manufacturers are always watching global supply chains and demand trends.

“Obviously, the geopolitical concerns in the Middle East are on everyone’s mind. If you have international business, in particular, then you’re watching that especially closely,” he said, noting that category includes companies involved in logistics. “But it has inflationary pressures as well, generally with the price of oil.”

Economic Growth Survey results

The impact of inflation on business decisions was among topics covered in Springfield Business Journal’s 2026 Economic Growth Survey. Roughly 60% of respondents said raising prices was a change their company made as a result of inflation. Additionally, nearly 50% of respondents said they chose to reduce operational expenses.

Morrow said what he’s heard in the business community is that most people believe the energy prices won’t remain permanently elevated once the Iran war ends.

“Of course, most people hoped for sooner than now, but at some point, that should be settled in some form or another,” he said. “Once that happens, there’s generally a belief that energy prices that are tied closely to oil are going to stabilize more.”

Despite the inflationary concerns, Morrow said the chamber generally has heard relative optimism from local businesses. However, optimism is the nature of most entrepreneurs, he said.

“But they are not necessarily betting on big, big changes in the year ahead, in terms of especially national or global economic forces that affect us here locally,” he said.

Confidence in the local economy compared to a year ago largely stayed the same, according to SBJ’s Economic Growth Survey. Roughly 49% of respondents said their confidence level held steady, up from 44% in 2025’s survey. Increased confidence this year was around 18%, and nearly 33% said their economic confidence declined.

Caution and growth

Morrow said local factors make up the bulk of the concerns he hears.

“When it comes to particularly real estate development, housing development, I think there’s some concern that there’s uncertainty around zoning processes and things like that,” he said. “It does affect people’s perspectives in terms of what they’re able and willing to do to put capital at risk in the community.”

Morrow said housing is important to grow the regional gross domestic product and create more opportunities.

“People have to have places to live, and they need to be able to afford those places to live. That’s just a simple matter of supply and demand,” he said. “And if we’re not able to really increase the supply of housing in a healthy way, then it’s only going to drive up the cost of housing, which really eats away at our affordability.”

Mitchell said the Springfield market is somewhat insulated from economic impacts that larger metropolitan areas may experience more significantly.

“We don’t get those really big highs, and we don’t get the crashes,” he said. “That’s one of the things that’s kind of interesting about this little sub-pocket of Missouri. It just kind of hums along on its own.”

Additionally, the population doesn’t have a lot of in-migration or out-migration, Mitchell said.

“The population is relatively stable,” he said, adding that is one of the local market’s advantages. “And by stable, I don’t think we’re staying the same. The growth isn’t exploding or collapsing.”

The Springfield MSA – comprising Greene, Christian, Dallas, Polk and Webster counties – reached a population milestone earlier this year. According to U.S. Census Bureau estimates, the metro surpassed a half-million residents for the first time, recording a July 1, 2025, population of 500,694. That’s a growth rate of 5.3% over the April 1, 2020, Census base of 475,435.

With factors like the local metro’s steady population growth, Mitchell said there’s still room for economic optimism.

“It’s not the best of times. It’s not the worst of times,” he said. “COVID and the Great Recession were certainly much more significant problems financially for firms and for consumers than what we have happening right now.”

Still, he said factors like stubborn inflation and global trade volatility can add up over time on business and consumer psyches.

“All of them together can kind of make people be a little bit leery and just tired, mentally drained,” he said. “Inflation is weighing on people’s minds. The 2026 midterm election is all about inflation.” •