Even as the Republican Party secures a seemingly ever-tightening grip on Missouri voters, a rift between those who identify themselves with the Grand Old Party both near and far is changing the face of politics as Aug. 5 primaries approach.
On one side are tea party candidates looking to reduce the size and influence of government. On the other: Traditional conservatives who want to decrease taxes while protecting long-standing social values. And in the distance, Democrats might seize an opportunity to capitalize on the divide.
Last month, incumbents around the nation were thrown for a loop when U.S. House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, R-Va., lost a primary election to a largely unknown college professor and tea party candidate. While Missouri’s 7th District incumbent for the U.S. House of Representatives isn’t expected to lose his seat to relatively unknown insurance salesman Marshall Works, according to Drury Political Science Professor Daniel Ponder, Cantor’s defeat underscores a new political reality for conservatives.
“In American politics today, one of the most interesting questions is not what’s going on with Republicans versus Democrats or between Obama and Congress, but what’s going on within the Republican Party,” Ponder said.
George Connor, director of Missouri State University’s political science department, said one thing is growing clearer: Missouri is becoming more conservative.
“I don’t think there is too much question that the state, overall, is more conservative than it was in 2008, in 2005, in 2000,” Connor said.
He said not only are conservatives becoming increasingly ideological – pushing harder for smaller government and less taxes, for example – but there are fewer Democratic strongholds.
“In south St. Louis, the South County [region], what used to be Russ Carnahan’s seat is no longer there,” Connor said, referring to the congressional seat Missouri lost in the 2010 reorganization based on population. “Prior to Russ Carnahan, between [Richard] Gephardt and Lenore Sullivan, there was 50-plus years of solid Democratic voting there. And the Democrats didn’t just lose; they’re not there. There have been significant demographic changes.”
He said the closure of the Chrysler plant in Fenton scattered blue-collar support for Democrats as more conservative areas in the state realized the most growth.
“Those aren’t Democrats coming to Christian County and moving to St. Charles,” Connor said.
Speeding up changes within the Republican Party was the tea party movement that took hold in the first part of President Barack Obama’s first term. “I think President Obama, personally, and the issues that he stands for galvanized opposition,” Connor said.
“Even President Clinton, for as much as he was disliked, he didn’t galvanize Republicans against him statewide.”
Political professors Connor and Ponder agreed Rep. Billy Long, R-Mo., is more like a tea party candidate, which positions him well for a primary in southwest Missouri.
“Marshall Works has run as a Democrat before. He has no name recognition in the area,” Ponder said.
“Billy Long can have the seat as long as he wants it,” Connor added.
Works, who is the Republican opponent challenging Long, acknowledged victory is a long shot. His campaign had only raised $1,200 as of June 25, while Long’s team had generated over $792,000. Still, he thinks it’s important to challenge the incumbent because he feels Long is part of the group of representatives who have brought Washington politics to a standstill.
“If you go to Washington with the idea that, ‘Here are my positions, and anything less than that is unacceptable,’ then you are pretty much guaranteeing that nothing will get done,” said Works, a producer with BancorpSouth Insurance Services who shrugs off political labels such as moderate or conservative. “My analogy is that Congress is in a car racing down a mountain road, and the Republicans and Democrats are fighting over the steering wheel. But no one is thinking, ‘Perhaps, we should hit the brakes.’”
The local political scientists also caution against reading too much into the Cantor loss. Politics, as they say, is local. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t lessons to be learned.
“If I’m an established Republican candidate and I’m running against a tea party candidate, I would spend most of my money trying to get the vote out,” Ponder said.
Connor said term limits have done much to cater to extremes in both Republicans and Democrats.
“The career ladder that used to be in place for both parties has largely disappeared,” Connor said. “With term limits, neither party has that grooming process it used to.”
Locally, it has helped make the primaries more interesting, he said.
Forget the general election in November; Connor said the real interesting races this year will be the August primaries.
Connor projects Democrats stand little chance in an area that largely supported controversial 2012 Republican Senate candidate Todd Akin over Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo. And perhaps the most interesting race is for Greene County presiding commissioner between Steve Helms, the Greene County circuit clerk and a conservative ideologue, and Bob Cirtin, the highly connected private investigator and a more moderate Republican.
“They reflect the divide in the Republican Party,” Connor said. “If you look at [endorsements on] Cirtin’s website, it really is a who’s who of powerful people in Springfield – Annie Busch from the library and John Twitty from City Utilities. The list is pretty long. I would label the long list of supporters as the long-standing Republican establishment in Greene County. The question is will that sort of power and clout outweigh the more passionate, intense ideological support that Steve Helms’ supporters are going to bring to the table. The Democrats don’t stand a snowball’s chance in hell.”
