The Missing Demographic

The 27-year-old 2002 Evangel University graduate returned to Springfield two years ago holding a University of Missouri law degree. His objective: start a legal career.

“Springfield has more career opportunities than cities of similar size,” said DeBoef, a rural Iowa native who works for U.S. District Court Judge Richard Dorr. “I don’t think people understand how good it is here for professionals.”

DeBoef was among the roughly 280 in attendance at the city's Oct. 9 Economic Outlook Conference, where keynote speaker futurist Joel Kotkin warned that Springfield is missing out on economic growth from a younger demographic. This was the fourth year for the conference, presented by the city of Springfield and the Springfield Business & Development Corp.

Kotkin showed statistics compiled by Praxis Strategy Group that revealed Springfield lost nearly five 25–40-year-olds out of every 1,000 residents in 2004.

Statistics compiled by Praxis Strategy Group show that in 2004 Springfield lost nearly five 25–40-year-olds out of every 1,000 residents.

“You’re losing a lot of those people in their 30s,” Kotkin told the audience at University Plaza Convention Center, noting that 25–40-year-olds are flocking to cities such as Riverside, Calif., Charlotte, N.C., and Phoenix. “You’ve got a lot of work to do.”

On the flipside, Springfield is gaining 41–64-year-olds by the same rate – nearly five for every 1,000 people, net domestic migration stats show. That trend rivals Las Vegas’ addition of more than six 41–64-year-olds for every 1,000 people.

Ready to capitalize

Kotkin, an expert on global, economic, political and social trends, said Springfield and other small-to-midsize cities are in a position to capitalize on America’s migration patterns, which indicate preferences shifting to small towns. For instance, metropolitan areas greater than 5 million people lost more than 2 million residents between 2000 and 2004, while at the same time, cities with populations less than half a million, Kotkin said, gained 500,000 people.

“People are looking for less-crowded places,” he said.

The question becomes whether Springfield will take advantage. “It’s up to you,” he told conference attendees.

Kotkin charged city business and community leaders with retaining more educated young people such as DeBoef and diversifying the economy to attract skilled workers across a broad demographic spectrum.

Young professionals quickly became the focus of the Corporate Headquarters panelist discussion – one of three by regional leaders during the conference.

At Bob Noble’s Springfield advertising agency, officials are trying to “young-up.”

“The reality is that the net generation will be running this world,” he said, adding that businesses have to be willing to adapt.

BKD LLP Managing Partner Neal Spencer said the Springfield-based accounting firm, the 10th largest in the nation, also is working to attract a younger workforce.

“We need to do a better job selling ourselves to young people,” he admitted.

Understanding that generation is key, said Jack Prim of Monett-based Jack Henry & Associates.

“Our perspective is not the same as many of those who work for us,” he said.

Know the city’s makeup

The key options to combat population shifts, Kotkin said, are to target immigrants, people in their 30s and downshifting baby boomers, and to focus on basics such as infrastructure and sound business sectors.

Kotkin’s data clearly identified construction as the Springfield area’s fastest-growing sector in the last six years, up 4,000 jobs, or 69 percent. The highly populated education and health services segment experienced the largest volume growth, 9,000 jobs, equaling a 28 percent advance. Manufacturing was the only noted sector in Praxis Strategy Group’s research to lose jobs – 5,500 since 2000, a 24 percent dip.

To retain jobs, Kotkin said it takes a communitywide effort.

“Every community has its own DNA,” Kotkin said, noting that the first step in identifying it is determining what Springfield wants to be when it grows up, a question first proposed by St. Louis developer Kevin McGowan during the Development Community panelist discussion.

McGowan’s question was pointed to downtown Springfield, where he is finalizing with the city a purchase and redevelopment plan for the Heer’s building. He believes the answer is in “a healthy, vibrant core,” and should spread throughout the city.

As “one of the darling cities in Missouri,” McGowan said Springfield is in a good spot. “There is a spirit that is present, or it’s not. You have it working here in Springfield.”

Los Angeles-area resident Kotkin also noticed something special about historic downtown while he was dining the night before the conference.

“Now, there is some potential,” he said.

The Panelists

Nine regional leaders spoke about their industries and the Springfield market during three panel discussions at the Springfield Area Chamber of Commerce’s Oct. 9 Economic Outlook Conference. Highlights follow.

Development Community

• David Murray of R.B. Murray Co.: With increasing infrastructure costs, “We’re going to … see a significant change in the way the private development sector deals with the government to develop sites.”

• Tom Rankin of Sperry Van Ness/Rankin Co.: The real estate market is “very strong,” although office/retail vacancies have increased 10 percent. About 10 percent of industrial space has been added.

• Kevin McGowan of McGowan|Walsh Urban Developers: Green development and beautification is about economic development, a belief influenced by a conversation with Chicago Mayor Richard M. Daley, who said, “If my city is beautiful, businesses will come here.”

Corporate Headquarters

• Neal Spencer of BKD LLP: City officials need to determine a communitywide vision for the future. “We’ll follow.”

• Bob Noble of Noble Communications: Springfield is not in a position to attract home offices for companies, rather, “Springfield creates headquarters.”

• Jack Prim of Jack Henry & Associates: Six most expensive words in business: “That’s how we’ve always done it.”

New Economy

• Jim Baker of Missouri State University: Major coup is Brewer Science’s 10-year lease, “a century for a tech company,” in the Jordan Valley Innovation Center. Charge is to spin manufacturing jobs out of the high-tech research.

• Robert F. Smith of Nantero: Springfield needs to expand its venture capitalist market for startups.

• Robin van der Wel of Brewer Science: Sharing of ideas is key at JVIC. “Without collaboration, new technologies cannot be developed.”

The Keynote

Joel Kotkin, a Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University’s Hobbs Institute in Anaheim, Calif., presented the keynote address during the conference. Kotkin is an international authority on global, economic, political and social trends. He is an Inc. magazine contributing editor, producing the annual Boomtowns feature, and writes a column for The New York Times’ Sunday Money & Business section. Other works have appeared in the Los Angeles Times, Washington Post, Weekly Standard, San Francisco Chronicle, The American and The Wall Street Journal. Kotkin also has testified before the Joint Economic Committee of the U.S. Congress.