The Importance of Clarity: Mindset matters as business confidence takes a hit

On the shifting sands of U.S. tariff policy and inflationary challenges, uncertainty is the theme for many business leaders, and that can cause a lack of confidence in what their companies’ futures might hold.

In the May Chief Economists Outlook from the World Economic Forum, 82% of respondents said uncertainty is very high, particularly when it comes to trade policy.

Among those respondents, 100% anticipated multinational corporations to respond to heightened uncertainty by reorganizing sourcing and logistics to reduce exposure to tariffs. Additionally, 87% predicted corporations will delay strategic decisions and investments.

Confidence in the local economy has also taken a hit, according to data from Springfield Business Journal’s 2025 Economic Growth Series survey. Asked if their confidence level has increased, stayed the same or decreased, the optimists held steady at 24% – same as in 2024 – but the percentage of respondents saying their confidence has decreased doubled year over year to 32% from 16%.

Confidence waning
Pavel Bosovik, founder and CEO of expedition vehicle manufacturer 27 North Inc., says he knows thousands of business owners across the United States, and when it comes to confidence, he perceives about a 50-50 split.

“About half of the business owners in my life feel this is the beginning of a golden era,” he says. “The amount of times I’ve heard that in the last six months makes me wonder if I should be doing more.”

But the other half believe we’re in a bubble that’s almost ready to pop, Bosovik says.

“I’m right in the middle,” he says. “I’m making decisions based on the idea that we’re going to win, but if not, we’re still going to win. You have to make every decision a win.”

Asked to assess their level of confidence within their own business sectors, SBJ survey respondents’ pessimism reached a seven-year high, measuring from when the survey began, with 28% anticipating their sector to worsen – up 18% from 2024. Optimists lost 10 points year over year, with 45% anticipating improvement in 2024 and only 35% reporting the same rosy outlook in 2025.

Similarly, a survey released in May by the National Small Business Association showed nearly two-thirds of small businesses called economic uncertainty the top challenge facing their business. Some 59% of respondents said they believe the national economy is worse off than it was just six months previously, and 73% predicted a flat or recessionary economy within the next year.

Like local EGS respondents, NSBA respondents reported decreased confidence since last year, with 41% reporting they are not confident about the future of their business compared to 30% in 2024.

Confidence versus clarity
Uncertainty abounds – but Marlene Chism, author on workplace issues and president of Marlene Chism Consulting, suggests business leaders not put too much stock in the idea of certainty.

“Certainty is just a feeling. Clarity is a choice,” Chism says.

According to Chism, people who are certain about outcomes are tricking themselves, because we can never be certain in life.

We can, however, be clear.

“Clarity can make us feel that we are guided by values and the idea that you can have choices, even in uncertainty,” Chism says. “It’s really about self-regulation.”

When uncertainty reigns, it’s a good time to revisit one’s values, Chism says.

“We have to ask ourselves: Who am I? How am I going to show up for my employees? Am I going to admit that right now I’m queasy, but it can be an exciting time to shift and collaborate?” she says. “You get to decide who you’re going to be and how you’re going to show up.”

Bosovik sees lack of confidence all around him, in employees, in management and owners, and even in customers.

“When we’re in such weird and unknown times – or even in good times – there’s always a lack of confidence,” he says. “Today more than ever you need confidence.”

Bosovik notes certainty is always an illusion.

“At any given time, you really only have about 60% of the information you need to make a decision,” he says. “You have to get comfortable making decisions in the unknown.”

Bosovik compares confidence to walking up an escalator at an airport.

“What happens if you stop and start overthinking your steps?” he says. “You could fall down a flight of stairs. It’s the same thing in business – you have to get so used to making decisions with confidence.”

If results are bad, Bosovik says, a business leader needs to adjust, but it’s important to keep going.

Bosovik says in times of crisis, it’s important not to make decisions based on emotions alone. This can lead to drastic employee cuts or a reduction in the marketing spend that consequentially brings in less lead generation and pushes down sales.

When bad things happen, from a bad economy or a bad decision, a smart business leader doesn’t pull back, he says.

“You can’t go into reserve mode,” he says. “That will trigger a death spiral, and it’s only a matter of time before you go bankrupt.”

For Sean Thouvenot, vice president of construction company Branco Enterprises Inc., in times of uncertainty, it’s important to control client expectations.

“My biggest thing is just keeping my clients from making rash decisions over temporary situations,” he says.

With construction, planning begins in the design process, and that’s when he gauges the market and makes decisions on whether to buy materials early to secure a good price or told hold off for possible savings.

He says some people in his industry are feeling shaky, especially if they don’t have a lot of work at the moment, and everyone is feeling the pinch when it comes to the availability of subcontractors, many of whom are booked out to the end of the year.

Thouvenot says on its own, the tariff situation is not worrying him much.

“We’ve had them before,” he says.

Finding solid ground
Christina Angle, president of aggregate and logistics company The Erlen Group, says she feels lucky to be exactly where she is.

“The Springfield economy is really diverse, and it’s rooted in a lot of things that tend to be recession-proof,” she said, citing health care and education as its biggest pillars.

Additionally, the area has a fair amount of specialization in food manufacturing, and it is a center for excellence for stainless steel manufacturing, she says.

“The diversity makes us really strong,” she says.

She cited the Springfield Area Chamber of Commerce strategic plan, which highlights the area’s strengths, like low unemployment, population growth more than twice the national average and growth of the prime-age labor force at more than five times the state average.

Angle acknowledged that tariffs and inflation chip away at confidence nationally.

“You can’t wish it away,” she says, “but we’re in probably as good a place as any to ride this out.”

Angle says business owners’ confidence seems to correlate with their sector. Those involved in an area like food production are not as heavily impacted by global issues, like tariffs, as those who manufacture equipment.

“If you’re doing retail or wholesale of something that’s manufactured in China, you’re scrambling to figure out what Plan B is,” she says. “The whole world changed in the last 30 days, and it keeps changing again every morning.”

Angle is skeptical that offshored manufacturing will turn back to U.S. production as the result of tariffs.

“A lot of it requires huge infrastructure, and it would take many months or years to rebuild,” she says.

What’s more, the reason it offshored in the first place is the higher cost of labor in the U.S.

“If you do bring it back, it’s going to bring higher labor rates, so I don’t see prices going down,” she says. “I don’t see how this doesn’t compound inflation.”

Angle says she’s glad to work for a private company.

“We have the luxury of having patient capital,” she says.

The Erlen Group is always looking ahead to what will be the right decision for five years from now, and that approach insulates the company from the ups and downs of the economy.

“We try to think generationally,” she says. “We don’t have to answer for our earnings every three months like a public company does, and I feel fortunate that’s not the expectation of our company.”

Angle says absent another global surprise – such as President Donald Trump’s April 2 “Liberation Day” tariff announcement – she expects to be in a good place.

“We control the things we can, and we have to be nimble and aware to react to the rest,” she says.

Angle says she puts a lot of value in celebrating wins.

“For me, the joy is the opportunities we have in front of us – that’s fun and exciting,” she says. “The best part is the team we get to work with every day to address them. There’s not a lot I can do about Trump and his tariffs, but we’ll keep working together to address the opportunities we have.”