Tariffs impact will persist despite Supreme Court ruling, official says

Tiffani Claussen: Amprod currently has around 25 job openings.

Stuart Coutchie: Finding qualified, skilled workers remains a big challenge.

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Despite the Feb. 20 Supreme Court ruling that eliminated a large portion of the Trump administration’s sweeping tariffs, an economic expert said at a manufacturing industry conference in Branson that companies may be in for a long wait when seeking refunds.

More than 1,000 companies, such as FedEx Corp. (NYSE: FDX) and Costco Wholesale Corp. (Nasdaq: COST) are suing the federal government in the U.S. Court of International Trade in efforts to recoup costs from the tariffs. However, Cara Walton, a director in organizational performance at Wipfli LLP, a Milwaukee, Wisconsin-based accounting and business consulting firm, told attendees at the Midwest Manufacturers Trade Show & Conference that the Supreme Court said in its ruling that lower courts will decide when, or if, any refunds are provided.

“Unfortunately, I’m here to tell you all, you may believe you’re entitled to a refund,” Walton said. “I understand why you may think that. It could take months. It could take years before lower courts decide how these dollars are refunded.”

Walton was joined during a Feb. 24 keynote presentation at the conference by Wipfli’s Mike Devereux, who is a partner in the firm and oversees a team of professionals nationally that provides audit, tax and consulting services to the manufacturing sector. Their presentation, which included global economic trends and tax reforms impacting U.S. manufacturing, was one of nearly two dozen sessions held Feb. 24-25 at the Branson Convention Center. The annual event is organized by the Missouri Association of Manufacturers.

The Supreme Court’s decision involved tariffs that President Donald Trump put in place under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which was passed by Congress in 1977.

“What the Supreme Court decided on (Feb. 20) was he does not have legal footing to utilize IEEPA to impose tariffs,” Walton said. “What the Supreme Court did not do is they did not say President Trump cannot impose tariffs. He still has vehicles to impose tariffs and will continue to.”

President Trump said Feb. 23 that national security tariffs would remain in place in full effect, along with an additional 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. Walton said Section 122 allows the president to impose tariffs with no congressional approval needed for up to 150 days. Trump also announced a 15% global tariff on Feb. 21, but the tariff went into effect at 10% on Feb. 24, according to multiple news accounts and the presidential proclamation dated Feb. 20.

“I am not a gambling woman, but if I was, I would bet that President Trump will announce at some point in the very near future that he is going to increase those tariffs up to 15%,” she said. “That is the max he can do under Section 122.”

Walton said manufacturers who have paid a tariff directly to the federal government through an Automated Commercial Environment account should have a clear, documented amount of money they have been paying. That will be helpful for tracking totals for possible refunds.

“If you have been paying a tariff to a customer or a supplier, and it has not been as part of something directly to the federal government, you need to be tracking that,” she said. “And if you have not been tracking that over the last year, start now and go backwards. It will be arduous. It’ll be annoying. It’ll help you in the long run because if a lower court does decide on refunds, you want to know exactly how much money you’ve spent. And if you did not pay that money directly to the federal government, they have no visibility into what that amount of money is.”

Data digging
Walton also covered some of the economic data that Wipfli collects as part of its annual manufacturing benchmarking study, which provides insights into performance trends, operational benchmarks and strategic priorities across sectors.

The top two concerns mentioned by respondents in 2025 were raw material tariffs and higher cost of doing business – at 72% and 64% of those polled, respectively, according to the study.  Walton noted the U.S. economy is currently in a phase where inflation is declining, as are the interest rates, albeit not at a pace that she said some may want.

Those economic positives are tied to the country’s gross domestic product, which she said has experienced three consecutive quarters of growth.

According to data from S&P Global Inc. (NYSE: SPGI), GDP is estimated at 1.4% growth in the fourth quarter of 2025. Still, Walton said while the economy is continuing to grow, that growth is not necessarily experienced by the average consumer.

“It is harder to plan for business today than it was yesterday. That will continue to be true,” she said. “The question for all of us is how do we continue to plan and forecast anyway?”

Even if you take tariffs and trade out of the picture, the U.S. still will have supply chain challenges, she said.

“We are still part of a global supply chain, so we still have to navigate that supply chain in many instances that comes with geopolitical issues,” she said. “Maybe we can’t get things out of certain locations at certain points in time. Some of that has resulted in reduced demand.”

Making investments
For Stuart Coutchie, owner of Griffin Industries in Ash Grove, tariffs are always impactful for his company, whose services include sheet metal stamping, forming and CNC laser cutting.

“People want to reshore things. That’s been costly, and it makes material costs higher,” he said. “So, that’s a negative.”

Still, Coutchie said finding qualified, skilled workers remains the biggest challenge for his company, which has around 25 employees. Griffin Industries was among nearly 170 exhibitors participating in the two-day conference in Branson.

“As a small business, you do what you can to navigate headwinds,” he said, adding he hopes to increase Griffin Industries’ workforce to 30 before year’s end. “We’re always looking for new customers, trying to maintain our workforce. We invest a lot in equipment.”

Coutchie estimated he’s spent around $4 million for new equipment over the last four years, which includes laser cutters and CNC bending machines.

“It gives us the ability to cut stuff a lot thicker and a lot faster than before,” he said. “We’re not limited by almost anything.”

Boosting workforce numbers also is a challenge for Amprod LLC, said CEO Tiffany Claussen. She said the Strafford-based manufacturing company, which also was a conference exhibitor, currently has about 25 positions open. The company employs roughly 440 people with divisions including American Products, DustShield, EnSight Solutions and Watson Custom Tanks.

“But we’re in a growth mode, and we’re bringing people on,” she said. “So that’s part of that process.”

Additionally, she said the frequently changing tariff environment continues to create a level of uncertainty.

“How is that going to play out? And in five months, where does that leave us,” she said of the new 10% global tariff’s expected end date, under federal law. “We’re trying to make long-term decisions, and so it makes you kind of second-guess your decisions.”

Like Griffin Industries, Claussen said Amprod is making investments to stay competitive and replace aging equipment.

The company is expecting to soon install a new laser cutter at its Watson Custom Tanks facility that will expand capacity.

“It will allow us to do more in-house instead of things that we used to have to subcontract out,” she said, estimating the equipment cost a little under $1 million.

Tax provisions
Wipfli’s Devereux covered some of the tax provisions of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Machinery, equipment, plant and other facilities are part of a provision of the law that allows a 100% bonus depreciation for assets acquired and placed in service after Jan. 19, 2025. President Trump signed the federal budget reconciliation bill July 4, 2025.

Section 179 of the bill allows businesses to expense personal property and certain qualified real property, with the goal of incentivizing businesses to invest in capital expenditures and keep growing. Under the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, for property placed in service in tax years beginning in 2018 and beyond, Section 179 permitted a maximum deduction of $1 million with a phase-out threshold of $2.5 million.

Now, Devereux said the bill makes Section 179 expensing permanent and doubles the maximum deduction to $2.5 million with a phase-out threshold of $4 million in equipment purchases. The increased limits apply to property placed in service after Dec. 31, 2024.

“Essentially you’ve got to be building a new plant or putting an addition on,” he said. “It’s got to be new to you. It’s got to be used in a qualified production activity. Manufacturing qualifies; production qualifies.”

Even as headwinds such as tariffs continue to change, Walton said manufacturers need to continue planning appropriately.

“You have to be aware of tariffs and geopolitical tensions. I unfortunately think that this is going to continue to be a factor regardless of who’s in office,” she said. “Do you know your costs? And if you don’t, how do you get there to know your costs better?”