Greene County's share of area new home construction grew slightly in 2008 after a steady decline in recent years, according to a five-county study presented to the Home Builders Association of Greater Springfield on March 13.
St. Louis-based Zanola Co. LLC began performing real estate studies in southwest Missouri last fall and has committed to updating its data every four months.
New home construction market shares were determined based on permits issued in Zanola's study area: Greene, Christian, Taney, Stone and Barry counties.
Greene County's 2008 share of new home construction in the five-county area was up slightly at 39.6 percent from 38.9 percent in 2007, according to Zanola's year-end research. That's the first year that share has increased since 2002, when Greene County accounted for about 61 percent of new homes in the study area.
Christian County's market share also increased: 24.8 percent, up from 23 percent in 2007 and up from 18 percent in 2002. The county saw a rapid increase between 2002 and 2005, but its share tapered off in 2006 and 2007.
Matt Morrow, executive officer of the Springfield HBA, said the slow shrinking of Greene County market share since 2002, and the subsequent increase in other areas, is a natural result of the region's growth.
"There are just fewer places to build in Greene County, and as you build more, there are fewer buildable areas - and those become more expensive," Morrow said. "So growth happens more in the more-affordable parts of the region."
As a result, Stone County is experiencing the greatest gain. Its market share was 17.6 percent in 2008, up from 11.9 percent the year before and from 8.9 percent in 2002.
Taney County, meanwhile, lost a major slice of market share in 2008, ending the year at about 14 percent, compared to 23.3 percent in 2007. Taney County had consistent increases each year 2002-06 but began losing share in 2007.
Barry County ended the year with 4.2 percent market share, compared to 2.7 percent in 2007 and up from 1.9 percent in 2002.
Morrow said those changes are the result of a similar predicament in Branson to the situation in Springfield and Greene County.
Specifically, Branson's large population of seasonal and lower-wage workers is increasingly priced out of the home market near Branson, where values have gone up as the area has been developed.
"I know that the trend has been for people who work in Branson to live further outside the city, because affordability has become a challenge," Morrow said. "Stone County is a natural place for that growth in demand."
Zanola's research indicates that trend will likely continue in 2010. The firm expects demand for new homes in Stone County to surpass Taney County demand by roughly 6 percent next year.
Jeff Seifried, regional development manager for the Ozarks Regional Economic Partnership, said the shifting numbers is an indicator that the five-county area is truly becoming a region.
"We continue to see growth in (OREP's) 10-county region, and it is becoming more of a metropolitan area than we experienced in the past," he said. "That includes home building and people deciding where they want to live."
He pointed to the increased investment in infrastructure, making travel around the area easier.
"With the investments the state and the local governments have made to local roads and highways, I think you're seeing some of that impact - there are more choices (for where to live) around the region," he added.SBJ Online Editor Dee Dee Jacobs contributed to this report.
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