Secretary of state leads challenge against incumbent in Senate race

Declared candidates are slowly emerging in the 2016 race for U.S. Sen. Roy Blunt’s congressional seat, but a local political analyst considers only one a serious challenger: Democratic Secretary of State Jason Kander.

“Kander, while being young and a political newcomer, has been very successful and been able to raise money,” said Daniel Ponder, director of the Meador Center for Politics and Citizenship at Drury University. “Of course, he hasn’t raised as much money as Blunt, but I think that would be surprising.”

With $5 million in cash on hand at year’s end, Friends of Roy Blunt raised $1.25 million during the final quarter of the year and about $9 million has been raised for the 2016 election cycle.

At the end of the year, Missourians for Kander had nearly $2.07 million on hand. The campaign garnered $870,000 during the fourth quarter and had pulled in $3.2 million from supporters overall.

“I expect Blunt to have a funding advantage throughout,” Ponder said.

Though the official filing period doesn’t start until Feb. 23, Ponder said the fall general election is shaping up as a face-off between Blunt and Kander. He calls the current field thin.

According to election tracker websites, including BallotPedia.org, four others have declared candidacy: Republican small-business owner Christopher Batsche of Cassville; Iraq War veteran and information-technology specialist M.D. “Rabbi” Alam and ordained minister and registered nurse Cori Bush, both Democrats; and marijuana-legalization activist “Chief Wana Dubie,” an Independent from Salem.

Ponder, an L.E. Meador professor of political science, said any real threats to Blunt’s Senate seat already should have entered the race.

“The only Democrat I’d see being able to mount a challenge is Jay Nixon, and at this point, I’d be surprised to see him do that,” Ponder said, adding name recognition and political organization are key attributes in a Senate challenger.

A common strategy for Democrats in statewide elections, Ponder said, is to maximize their support in Kansas City and St. Louis and pull off a strong showing in Greene County, which historically leans Republican.

Nixon might have had a strong shot at beating Blunt because he won Greene County in the past gubernatorial election, but Ponder speculated criticism over the handling of protests in Ferguson might have changed the political winds enough to keep Nixon from running.

Chris Hayden, communication director for the Kander campaign, already is looking past the Aug. 2 primary to the Nov. 8 general election.

“Jason’s the nominee. That’s done,” Hayden said. “We are ecstatic with the momentum we had in 2015 carrying into 2016. We have over 10,000 donors and the average donation is around $85, which means we have real grassroots support.”

According to Maplight.org, a nonprofit, nonpartisan research group that tracks political money, 2012 candidates who won a Senate seat raised an average of $10.48 million. Ponder estimates it would take over $14 million to win the 2016 Missouri Senate seat and projects Blunt as a favorite.

“You can’t count Kander out at this point,” he said. “Democrats have shown they can be elected to statewide offices.”

Andy Blunt, Roy Blunt’s campaign manager, said he’s pleased with the early fundraising by his dad’s team.

“Friends of Roy Blunt is in a great position to get our message out in 2016. We will continue to meet our fundraising goals thanks to dedicated supporters volunteering their time, talent and resources because they know the stakes have never been higher,”  he said via email.

Tate O’Connor, a Blunt campaign representative, declined to answer follow-up questions for Andy Blunt about fundraising goals and whether Kander was being taken seriously as a candidate.

“We’ll leave those questions for prognosticators,” O’Connor said by email.

Hayden also declined to speak to fundraising goals. “This is going to be an expensive race. This is the anniversary of the Citizens United decision, so there’s unlimited money that can be spent from outside groups,” Hayden said.

But can Kander win?

“Absolutely. Jason ran a race in 2012 that no one thought he could win. He was 30 years old. He was up against a well-funded opponent and he won because he outhustled his opponent,” Hayden said of Kander’s narrow victory over Rep. Shane Schoeller.

Kander already is hustling around the state.

“Last fall, he did a listening tour where in six days he went to every single county in Missouri. He wanted to talk to at least one person in every county and see what they wanted to change about Washington,” Hayden said. “Springfield is going to be a big part of this election. He’ll be around."