Predictions of holiday shopping are mixed

While the retail industry is revising its forecast upward, The Conference Board predicts reduced household spending.

The National Retail Federation revised its holiday sales forecast and expects total retail sales in November and December to increase 6 percent to $439.5 billion. NRF had previously forecast a 5 percent increase.

Retail sales in October increased 7.2 percent year-to-year, after sales rose 7.2 percent in September as well. Those numbers, as well as falling gasoline prices, contributed to NRF’s revised prediction.

“As gasoline prices decrease, consumers are finding a little extra padding in their budgets,” said Rosalind Wells, NRF chief economist, in a news release. “Nearly every retail category has seen strong sales growth in the past few months, indicating that retailers will see positive gains as consumers continue to spend this holiday season.”

Although NRF is optimistic about holiday sales, survey results issued by The Conference Board predict U.S. households each will spend an average of $10 less this year.

The organization issued the results of its Christmas spending survey for 2005, which predicts U.S. households will spend an average of $466 on gifts this season, down from last year’s estimate of $476.

Missouri households are predicted to spend an average of $460 on holiday shopping, according to the survey.

The survey also indicates that about 34 percent of all consumers will buy holiday gifts on the Internet, up from 33 percent last year.

Books are the top gift on the shopping list, and clothing, shoes and toys follow closely.

The survey polled 5,000 households and was conducted by TNS, a custom research company.