PMI could signal comeback for Missouri economy

Missouri's Purchasing Managers' In-dex, considered a key economic indicator, hit an 18-month high in February that could signal the state's economy is on the verge of a comeback, according to a release from the Missouri Department of Economic Development.

The PMI was 53.3 in February, the highest it has been since July 2000 and a strong rebound from December 2001 figure of 38.5. Typically, a score greater than 50 indicates an expansionary economy, while a score below 50 forecasts a sluggish economy for the next three to six months.

"This is good news because this index is highly regarded as an indicator of things to come three to six months down the road," said Joseph L. Driskill, director of the Missouri DED. "Since De-cember we have been seeing some encouraging signs that have made us cautiously optimistic that the national recession may be moving toward recovery. While a one-month increase in this indicator does not prove a trend, this is the best sign we have seen yet for Missouri."

Driskill pointed out that Missouri's February PMI marked the first time it had topped 50 since May 2001.

The Purchasing Managers' Index is part of a monthly survey conducted by Creighton University in Omaha, Neb. It measures such factors as new orders, production, supplier delivery times, backlogs, inventories, prices, employment, import orders and exports.

Nationally, the PMI was also good news. It increased from 49.9 in January to 54.7, the highest score since Septem-ber of 2000 and the first time in 19 months that the score topped 50.

Missouri's PMI score placed it third among the nine states in the Mid-America region, ranking behind South Dakota's 59.3 and Iowa's 59. Following behind Missouri's score of 53.3 were Nebraska 53, North Dakota 52.6, Ar-kansas 50.5, Minnesota 47.9, Kansas 44.3, and Oklahoma 34.4.

Overall, the average for the Mid-America region was 56.2, up considerably from January's 47.7 and the third straight month that the index has increased.