Opinion: 2006 elections hinge on battle of the brands

Historically, Republicans have been the best-of-breed when it comes to marketing the party and winning elections. Democrats aren’t even in the same league.

Republicans know and practice their Marketing 101. Newt Gingrich’s Contract with America, the exploitation of social wedge issues such as same-sex marriage, and the early understanding of the power of talk radio – and the highly-effective mobilization of its airwaves – are but three recent examples of an organization that has its marketing act together. Couple that with the fierce competitiveness born of master strategists Lee Attwater and Karl Rove, not to mention the direct marketing genius of conservative Richard Viguerie, and it becomes obvious, in hindsight, that the Democrats never stood a chance. For the bulk of the last 30 years, the Democratic Party has been a passive, reactive nonperformer, marketing-wise.

Today, the Republicans are in trouble. If the Republican Party, as a consumer brand, were being managed by a professional marketer such as Procter & Gamble or Coca-Cola, heads would roll and the lights would be burning late into the evening in the offices of the brand management team. Let’s review the bidding.

From a public relations perspective, the situation couldn’t be worse, what with the latest Foley revelations. If Johnson & Johnson had handled the Tylenol crisis in the same manner as Dennis Hastert and Congressional leaders have responded to this calamity, the popular drug would be off the shelves and long gone.

From a branding perspective, it’s a slow death by a thousand cuts. The litany is agonizing – Iraq, the “weapons of mass destruction” debacle, Tom DeLay, Terry Schiavo, stem cell research, Jack Abramoff, the Wilson-Plame affair, Katrina, $3 a gallon gas, Foley, Ney. And if the Democrats capture either of the chambers, there’ll be enough congressional investigations to tar the Republican Party reputation for the next 25 years.

One can feel the air slowly escaping the balloon. Even the party’s staunchest supporters, residing in the conservative and religious base, have doubts. They’re not happy about the growth in spending and the deficit.

The clarity of branding message is still there, that only Republican leadership can keep the country safe and secure. But the message no longer resonates as it did prior to the Iraq invasion. There have been too many color alerts and too much bad news from the Middle East. Bottom line: George W. Bush and the Republican Party are brands in crisis.

Where the party still has decided strength is in its significant fundraising advantage estimated at more than $50 million heading into the final days, two decades of congressional district gerrymandering, a true appreciation for and application of micro-marketing that identifies and allows customized communication with supporters and undecided voters with pinpoint accuracy, and a proven, unrivalled get-out-the-vote machine. However, 2006 may play out differently in this regard. The Democratic faithful are angry. They consider 2000 and 2004 stolen elections. And they have the same love and regard for George W. as conservatives have for Clinton – Bill or Hillary. Expect a heavy Democratic turnout at the polls. Don’t count on a similarly heavy turnout from the Republican base. One smells questioning, pointing to doubt, leading to disappointment, resulting in electoral lethargy this time around.

It will be close, but in the end this writer predicts that there’ll be a new brand in town. Perceptually, the Democrats have a better product this time around, with more appropriate, better sounding candidates. They don’t have a vision or a leader. But they need neither. They’ll get the turnout when and where it counts, and they face a Republican brand that’s had too many product recalls. That’s why the Democrats will take the House and possibly the Senate. The real battle of the brands will be 2008. McCain vs. Clinton (Hillary). Now that’s a fight I’d pay to watch on pay-per-view.

Alf Nucifora is a California-based marketing consultant, who produces The Alf Report, a monthly online newsletter. He can be reached at alf@nucifora.com.