No. 4: Economic uncertainty a yearlong theme

With tariffs rising, federal funding flows destabilizing and the U.S. enduring a record 43-day government shutdown this year, business and nonprofit leaders say economic uncertainty is straining budgets, planning and household stability.

At a recent Springfield Business Journal CEO Roundtable, financial executives said shifting tariff policies and inconsistent labor data have complicated forecasts. Conversations continue to center on whether the country is in an AI-driven bubble or moving toward recession.

Justin Setser of Central Trust Co. noted in November that the U.S. is experiencing a K-shaped economy – one where those holding investments and real assets have prospered while lower-income households struggle. Inflation, he said, has made it difficult for many Americans “to afford the normal things in life.” Setser added that although the economy remains stable, it is “softening and slowing.”

Federal data released in mid-December showed the U.S. gained 64,000 jobs in November but lost 105,000 in October, largely due to federal worker departures following Trump administration cuts. The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since 2021.

Speaking at a Dec. 16 SBJ People You Need to Know event, Missouri Gov. Mike Kehoe said he wasn’t familiar with the term K-shaped economy but believed the description fit current conditions. He noted that wage growth driven by inflation rarely reverses, but that “the cost of goods can come down,” offering potential relief for working families.

Tariffs implemented by the Trump administration have generated billions in federal revenue, but local observers warn the costs are spreading. Springfield Area Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Matt Morrow said businesses are uneasy: “Significantly increased tariffs are not something that businesses look forward to, and they’re nervous.”

The government shutdown added more strain, suspending November Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits for millions nationwide. One in nine Missourians relies on SNAP, according to Ozarks Area Community Action Corp., and local agencies hustled to coordinate food assistance.

Nonprofits already facing federal cuts say instability is forcing quick shifts. Brandy Harris of Boys & Girls Clubs of Springfield said this summer that nearly every day brought a new update suggesting a beneficial program “is probably going away.” At Crosslines Community Outreach, CEO Jaimie Trussell said the speed of changes has been jarring, with previously stable supports “suddenly and without notice” no longer reliable.

With inflation, weak workforce signals and shrinking government safety nets, Springfield-area leaders warned that communities may face increasing economic challenges.