MSU bucking national undergraduate ‘enrollment cliff’

Despite warnings of a national enrollment cliff hitting higher education, Missouri State University is not seeing the steep decline in traditional undergraduates that was predicted to show up during the fall semester.

To the contrary, preliminary numbers for the 2026-27 year are holding steady.

“This is the year that the demographic cliff hits, so this is the year many institutions in our region, actually all over the United States, are seeing significant declines in their fall deposits at this point in time,” said Dawn Medley, vice president for enrollment management at MSU.

In a May 7 meeting of the MSU Board of Governors, Medley said the institution is bucking the trend prompted by lower birth rates during the Great Recession that started in 2008.

Medley said even though MSU received fewer applications for the upcoming year, the number of first-year students putting down deposits for fall 2026 is 2,744, a 2% increase over the same time a year ago.

“I believe very strongly in the brand that is Missouri State. I believe very strongly in the fact that we spend a lot of time in our local community, and as belts tend to tighten in economic times, a lot of students tend to stay closer,” she said. “We’re performing very well in the state of Missouri.”

MSU reported a record high 25,238 for the Springfield campus and 27,235 for the entire system in September 2025, when fall census is logged. The growth was driven, in large part, by more transfer students and high school students taking dual credit courses.

Counts of international and graduate students were down.

Medley said the university is working to recruit students from outside of Missouri, including neighboring states, but uncertainty continues regarding the enrollment of international students.

She noted the number of international students applying for graduate school at MSU was 710, as of May 5, a decline of 41% from the same period in 2025. The number admitted to graduate programs was just 542, a drop of 38%.

The process for international students hoping to study in the U.S. has become more laborious, from screening requirements to the cost of obtaining a student visa, officials say.

Staff members focused on recruiting international students recently became part of enrollment management and services, which Medley oversees.

“That team is incredibly focused on doing everything they can to bring students to us, but there still remain a lot of factors outside of our control,” she said.

Medley said MSU, like many higher education institutions, experienced a drop in international students during the pandemic and has not yet fully recovered.

MSU also reported a dip in the number of transfer students admitted for the fall. It was 1,231 students, a drop of 5% from the same time last year.

Medley said MSU recently changed its scholarship strategy for transfer students to increase numbers. She noted it’s not unusual for transfer students to finalize their transfer plans a little later.

“Those students right now are finishing up their spring semester and they’re like ‘OK, now I need to get busy. I need to figure out where I’m going,’” she said. “Our team is working very diligently with our transfer feeder schools to make sure that we’re doing well in those markets.”