Missouri consumer confidence leaped forward this fall, growing 12 percent over sentiment just a few months ago.
Arvest Bank’s second Consumer Sentiment Index found Missouri consumer confidence in October rose to 77.4 from 68.6 during the inaugural survey conducted in June.
While confidence was up across the board, the Show-Me State’s index also beat neighboring states Oklahoma and Arkansas.
Conducted by the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Arkansas Sam W. Walton College of Business, the study analyzes the results of 1,200 phone surveys performed by the University Oklahoma’s public opinion learning laboratory during September and October, according to a news release.
The methodology was developed by the University of Michigan for its national Index of Consumer Sentiment and is based on five questions that evaluate consumer perceptions. Respondents answered questions regarding their current and future finances, current and future business conditions, plans to purchase major household items, current level of consumer debt, current and planned savings, and demographic information.
David Mitchell, director of the Bureau of Economic Research at Missouri State University, was retained by Arvest to analyze survey results in Missouri, which includes a few counties in Kansas that are in the Kansas City metropolitan statistical area.
“This increase is driven by a couple of factors, including lower gasoline prices, which make consumers feel a little richer, and by some late 2014 increases in employment growth,” Mitchell said in the release. “Unfortunately, these increases in employment growth have not yet translated into significant increases in wage growth.”
In Oklahoma, the index increased to 76.4 from 72.6, and Arkansas rose to 68.1 from 67.4.
The three-state region as a whole climbed to 72.6 from 71.4, with families making more than $75,000 a year indicating the biggest changes.
By comparison, the national index was 86.9 in October, which is measured against a baseline index value of 100 from December 1964. The U.S. index increased from 82.5 in June, according to the release.
In Missouri, the largest gains were observed among 18- to 24-year-olds, who increased to 93.9 from 63.5; respondents who rent their homes, 74.8 from 61.6; those older than 65, to 70 from 60.3; and those not in the labor force, 69.3 from 59.6.
Mitchell said as the index grows past this initial phase, it could become more valuable to communities.
“We now have additional data beyond our starting data point,” he said. “This allows us to begin to analyze not only how consumers in Missouri are doing relative to the region and the nation, but also how their consumer sentiment is changing relative to the region and the nation.
“Whereas the region’s consumer sentiment increased by only 1.2 and the nation’s increased by 3.9, Missouri saw an increase of 8.8.”
The Arvest Consumer Sentiment Survey will be conducted twice a year, with the next segment in May.
Each index is released in three parts, with consumer sentiment followed by personal finance and savings and spending plans.
