Missouri migration statistics offer toss-up

A look at studies by major moving companies offers mixed data on whether more people are coming into or leaving the Show-Me state.

According to a handful of reports, more people than ever are choosing to call Missouri home. Recent data from United Van Lines, Mayflower Transit, U-Haul International and Pew Research Center show there are more folks who want to move to Missouri than there are Missourians who want to relocate to other states.

Sounds great, right? Not so fast.

Reports issued by Atlas Van Lines and the Brookings Institute reveal that more households are leaving Missouri than moving here.

Turns out that the discrepancies come from the fact that each of the reports, issued in 2008 and earlier this year, were based on different data sets and research methods.

In the case of the moving companies, the findings are based solely on who they moved. If the company had more trucks heading one way than the other, that's the label Missouri received.

In Brookings Institute's May 18 report, "Economy, Housing Woes Slow Migration, Census Shows," Census estimates showed Missouri "flipped from migration gains to losses" in 2007-08. In "Who moves? Who Stays Put? Where's Home?" - issued in late 2008 - Pew Research used a combination of Census numbers and a survey to conclude that 51 percent of the Missouri moves in 2007-08 were inbound.

Even local real estate experts' opinions are mixed when it comes to figuring out whether Missouri is an inbound or outbound state.

Cleo Hanson, relocation director at Murney Associates, sees the situation as balanced when it comes to individuals choosing to relocate.

But "I've seen probably more outbound on the corporate relocations," he said. He said one reason for more outbound activity with such relocations may be because many employers will send two real estate companies out to the market where the employee is relocating to compete for the listings.

"On corporate relocations, they always want two companies to go out and do a market analysis and pricing, et cetera," he added. "On inbound (relocations) they just send one, as far as working with a buyer (goes)."

Sabina Frank, a Realtor with Carol Jones, Realtors, said she sees more people moving into this area from out-of-state than leaving it, though market and economic conditions are affecting that traffic.

"It has slowed just a little bit simply because they can't sell their home if they're coming in from California or Florida or wherever they're coming from," Frank said.

Hanson noted that sluggishness in other markets means that to get a good gauge on who's coming into or leaving Missouri calls for more than looking at sales transactions.

"Quite frankly, there are quite a few people renting that would be buying if their homes were sold in the markets they're moving from," Hanson said.

The reasons she's heard for moving here include the four seasons, the lower cost of living - "that will always be a drawing card," she says - and being close to the lakes and Branson.

The fact that Springfield has great medical facilities doesn't hurt. "As you get older, that is a consideration," Frank said.

And sometimes families draw people back to Missouri.

Evan DeShong, broker-manager at Keller Williams Realty, said those choosing to relocate here from out of state often "have some roots in the southwest Missouri area. ... They're coming back to a slower pace of life."