George Connor: Medicaid expansion is not likely in 2015.
Lawmakers start session with open agenda
Brian Brown
Posted online
Those inside Jefferson City politics say 2015 is hard to pin down.
The big debates of 2014 surrounding tax cuts and farming rights have largely been settled or significantly tamped down, leaving no clear agenda for this year’s legislative session.
One of the big issues remaining, Medicaid expansion, likely could be a nonissue, local political experts say. While groups supporting Medicaid expansion such as the Missouri Health Association and the Missouri Budget Project still carry the torch, Missouri State University political science professor George Connor said getting a plan together with broad support before the session ends May 15 is a long shot.
“The big push for right-to-work is gone. The controversies relating to the governor are largely dissipated because the majorities in the House and Senate are so big,” said Connor, who directs MSU’s political science department. “Not that they are going to agree on everything, but things like Medicaid expansion, no matter how much the governor talks about it, are dead in the water.”
Republicans have a 117-45 majority over Democrats in the House of Representatives this year and a 25-9 majority in the Senate, creating a GOP supermajority and the power to override vetoes. In addition, legislators have a new role in the state budget process after voters amended the state constitution to allow lawmakers to override Gov. Jay Nixon’s moves to hold back budgeted items. Last year, the governor was widely criticized for holding back more than $1 billion, citing fears that the income tax cuts lawmakers passed threatened the state’s ability to provide services.
In 2014, Sen. Mike Parson, R-Bolivar, worked with stakeholders statewide in his Jefferson City office to help draft the right-to-farm constitutional amendment. This year, serving as chairman of the Small Business, Insurance and Industry Committee is a top priority.
Sifting through the top business issues, he said tort reform by capping punitive damages in legal judgments is still a good idea, but the way forward isn’t clear given the Missouri Supreme Court’s September decision to strike down the caps lawmakers passed earlier in the year. The senator sponsored Senate Bill 140, which would separate liability in tort cases with multiple defendants. That bill has received a first reading.
Springfield lobbyist Scott Marrs, who represents the city of Springfield, City Utiltities and Greene County at the capital, said his clients are neutral on Medicaid expansion. But he said city and county leaders suggest expansion could ease their budget concerns as federal money is dispersed.
According to a Missouri Budget Project report this month, if lawmakers expanded Medicaid this year the state would save over $80 million in fiscal 2016 and over $300 million through fiscal 2023. Marrs said a push for expansion is likely, but he doesn’t see it passing in 2015.
The Medicaid push doesn’t have Parson’s support, even though the largest industry in his district is health care. Before expansion, he’d need to see the state’s Medicaid system reformed to reduce waste.
“Other states are coming up with different types of reform. So, if (a bill) came with the right reforms, I would take a look at that legislation and decide at that point,” he said.
With Republicans in control of both chambers at the federal level, Connor expects state lawmakers to approach Medicaid with a wait-and-see attitude. He said Missouri’s largely conservative politicians don’t want to be seen as expanding the president’s health care reforms if there is a chance the Affordable Care Act could be modified or gutted at the national level.
Parson said he believes this is the session, however, a $600 million bonding bill will be implemented.
“That would be huge if we can get that accomplished,” he said.
Last year, Parson sponsored a bill that authorized the state to issue the bonds for public projects, and the governor signed it, but amid budget constraints, the bonds have yet to be issued.
Parson said $200 million would be slated for higher education projects, and lawmakers largely have decided how that money would be split up. In southwest Missouri, MSU is on tap to receive nearly $20 million.
Another $200 million would go toward deferred maintenance in state buildings such as the one on Park Central Square, and Parson said much of the rest is expected to go toward improvements of the state Capitol.
Parson, Connor and Marrs agree that a solution to transportation funding woes isn’t likely to materialize this year because voters had their say at the ballot box in August.
“If you have a tax that loses by 20 points, then you need to regroup and make sure you know why the product you were selling was one that people weren’t buying,” Parson said. “I don’t know of a direct plan that anyone has. I think everyone is going to be open to suggestions.”
Campaign finance reform has been a stated priority among the Republican leadership this session, but Marrs cautioned that political reform isn’t always easy to come by.
“I don’t know if that will happen,” he said.
Connor expects the big priority this year is to get a budget completed early.
“That way, if the governor line-items things, they can override him in session,” Connor said.
Not including Ferguson, he said there were no burning priorities this year because lawmakers largely accomplished what they wanted to last year.
On Ferguson, Marrs said there already were over 40 pieces of legislation filed as of press time.[[In-content Ad]]