Have fun with investment gurus? recommendations

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Here they come! It's the time of year when most general circulation financial publications flood us with advice about what investments we should own in the coming year. It's as though everything changes at the stroke of midnight Dec. 31. |ret||ret||tab|

I have pondered this phenomenon over the years but not to the extent of wasting a lot of time on it. |ret||ret||tab|

The best I can figure is that it's either a Wall Street conspiracy designed to get us to sell what we own and invest in something different, thus generating commissions for the brokerage houses, or it's a way to work the fear and/or greed angle to sell magazines and newspapers. |ret||ret||tab|

Are they telling us that the stuff we owned in November should be sold because it is not going to do well in 2002? Nah, they wouldn't do that, would they?|ret||ret||tab|

Take with a bit of skepticism the words of the pundits and their lists of the Best (Stocks, Mutual Funds, Index Funds choose one) To Own in the coming year. I have always found it interesting that most of the publications that provide that annual investment advice do not later publish their track record or have a mid-year review of the portfolio, including what you should sell. |ret||ret||tab|

Most do, however, let us all know after the fact what we should have sold, as in Last Year's Worst Performing Issues.|ret||ret||tab|

Want to have a little fun? |ret||ret||tab|

Save any magazines that provide such advice along with your own selection of what you think will do best during 2002. Chances are pretty good that your list will do as well or better than theirs will. |ret||ret||tab|

To be fair, your list should be one of issues you would buy and hold for the full year, placing the same limitations on yourself as those for the magazines. |ret||ret||tab|

Since most lists are generally of the 10 best, choose the same number yourself. (I would like to think that your selection process would incorporate some of the rational investing techniques and screens written about in this column, but ... )|ret||ret||tab|

Having castigated the publications to a degree, let me now suggest one that has in its current issue a "must read" article. The magazine is Fortune. The article is Warren Buffet's assessment of the markets and the outlook for investment returns over an extended period. |ret||ret||tab|

Buffet, derided by many during the tech bubble era as being old fashioned to the point of being completely out of touch with the "paradigm shift," has been rediscovered by many. |ret||ret||tab|

Rather than pan his rational approach to investing, younger generations of investors are beginning to recognize that his disciplined approach makes sense, although they may find it goes counter to their wishes to accept his conclusion about the long-term outlook for investment returns. |ret||ret||tab|

It is difficult to refute his analysis or conclusion, although I will be commenting in my next column on why his projected 7 percent net return is not as bad as it may seem at first reading. |ret||ret||tab|

I highly recommend his article to every investor, but especially those with performance expectations based on the NASDAQ for the three years prior to March 2000.|ret||ret||tab|

I always appreciate feedback from readers, even those who disagree with me. |ret||ret||tab|

Some of the questions and comments I received over the years became the basis for columns, making my job easier. If you have an investment topic you would like discussed in a future column, just let me know. |ret||ret||tab|

And don't worry about whether I will take offense. |ret||ret||tab|

It can't get any more personal than a reader's comment about the photo that appeared in the early days of this column.|ret||ret||tab|

(Clark Davis is a 30-year investment veteran and CEO of Saint Louis Investment Advisors, a specialized money management company. Ques-tions or comments can be directed to him by mail via The Springfield Bus-iness Journal, 313 Park Central West, 65806 or by e-mail at sbj@sbj.net.)[[In-content Ad]]