Futurists predict home will become focal point of activity

The nation has shifted from an age of euphoria to an age of uncertainty and distrust, making real estate trends more difficult to read. This shift also poses challenges for the industry's attempt to meet the demand for different live-work-play environments, according to futurists and trend observers speaking at the Urban Land Institute's annual fall meeting.

Last year's terrorist acts and the threat of more terrorism, combined with the stumbling economy, stock market plunge, corporate corruption and shrinking retirement savings, have created an environment of skepticism, worry, even paranoia, that could affect where and how consumers live and work, said trends forecaster Faith Popcorn, author of "Dictionary of the Future" and "EVEolution."

"In the current environment, people don't trust each other. You have to figure out how to react to your customers during a very shaky time," she said. According to Popcorn, people will "cocoon" more, spending even more time at home with family and friends.

As a result, they will seek more products and services that turn their homes into "retreats" from everything from shopping hassles (more online shopping) to bombs (more panic rooms), she said.

"Cocooning is an attempt to protect ourselves from the harsh realities of the outside world," Popcorn said.

As part of the push to make the home the focal point of activity, more products catering to "egonomics" will be provided, she added, noting that "consumers crave recognition of their own individuality." Real estate companies that translate this desire into highly customized housing and communities will be successful, she predicted.

Popcorn cited several demographic changes that are creating new opportunities for niche marketing, such the rising number of immigrants in the United States, an increasing number of older, single mothers, and perhaps most dramatic the aging of the baby boomers.

For instance, as the baby boom generation grows older, more boomers will age in place rather than move because they will be healthier and will remain in the workplace longer than the generation before them, she predicted.

This will result in demand for more home exercise equipment and workout rooms, more in-home fitness and spa services, and more demand for wellness (and sickness) house calls, Popcorn said. The purchasing power of this group which, at $1.6 trillion represents 70 percent of the disposable income in the United States must not be underestimated, she noted.

However, despite the rising number of niche markets with specialized demands in their living and working arrangements, the need for a "sense of togetherness," and the desire to stick close to home cuts across all demographic groups, Popcorn said.

The desire for a greater sense of community is being fueled in part by the tendency of people to seek reassurance in comfortable environments during times of uncertainty, said futurist Watts Wacker, author of "The 500 Year Delta" and "The Visionary's Handbook."

As a result, consumers in urban areas will likely choose to live in less isolated settings and be more drawn to developments that foster more interaction and a greater spirit of cohesiveness, he said. "We've spent years designing (neighborhoods) that take us from house to lawn to street (with no socialization). We're going to have to build differently," Wacker said.

Wacker cited several factors as contributing to "the creation of a new order" marking the beginning of this century, including 1. more management (or attempts at management) of the complicated aspects of our lives 2. the ability to know many more people than previous generations, due to exposure to a variety of information sources; 3. a greater acceptance of the volatility of our lives; 4. more intertwining of play with work; 5. more use of counter-intuitive measures in the professional and social aspects of our lives. "We will see more blurring of boundaries and more emphasis on personal values, mobility and connectivity," Wacker said.

Like Popcorn, Wacker predicted that consumers will be more apt to surround themselves with the familiar; however, he noted that the desire for a close-knit community would not keep people from living in densely populated settings.

With more areas becoming urbanized, as much as 80 percent of the world's population will be living in cities with 1 million or more people in 20 years, he noted.

Social commentator Tom Wolfe, author of "The Bonfire of the Vanities" and "A Man in Full," said the appeal of cities is driven in part by the "emotion economy," which thrives on selling experience and excitement, rather than products. Despite attempts to create "faux downtowns" in outlying areas, and despite the employment, shopping and recreational opportunities in such areas, the allure of downtown cannot be recreated, Wolfe said.

"The growth in edge cities created a conscious effort to play to the emotion economy. But, edge cities cannot create the excitement of downtown cities still have a monopoly" on cultural activities that continue to draw residents and visitors, he said. There is an "emotional attachment" to downtowns that will keep revitalization efforts strong, Wolfe said.