Economist: Missouri’s financial optimism good ‘on its face’

Missourians are becoming more optimistic about their personal financial situation and expectations about future business conditions, according to Arvest Bank’s fall Consumer Sentiment Survey. But a local economist believes the numbers could be a bit skewed.

The survey conducted in August found 27 percent of Missouri consumers are better off now financially than they were a year ago, up from 23 percent in Arvest’s spring study. Of those who took the survey, 38 percent indicated business conditions would improve during the next year, an increase from 22 percent in the spring, according to a news release.

“Although on its face this is good news, compared with late 2015 we see that people are slightly more pessimistic,” said Missouri State University Bureau of Economic Research Director David Mitchell, who was retained by Arvest to analyze the survey results, in the release.

The economist said the percentage of survey respondents who indicated they’re better off than a year ago is roughly the same as it was in late 2015. He also said the number of households that are worse off compared with a year ago is up in late 2016 compared with late 2015.

“Consumers’ optimistic assessment of what the economy holds over the next five years has changed little, and those consumers who think that the next five years might bring widespread unemployment has fallen eight percentage points,” Mitchell added.

Conducted by the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Arkansas Sam W. Walton College of Business, the study analyzes the results of over 1,200 random phone and online surveys performed by the University of Oklahoma’s public opinion learning laboratory. The study conducted twice a year examines the outlook of residents in Missouri, Oklahoma and Arkansas. The survey asks respondents to evaluate their current and future finances, business conditions, major household purchase plans, consumer debt, savings and demographics.