DED sums up Missouri economic data for 2001

Everyone knows that all good things must come to an end sooner or later.

Unfortunately, in 2001 that meant the end of the longest economic expansion in U.S. history. But the great philosopher Socrates advised us that "there is nothing stable in human affairs; therefore avoid undue elation in prosperity, or undue depression in adversity."

Recently, the National Bureau of Eco-nomic Research Business Cycle Dating Committee announced that the nation has been in a recession since March. And something that none of us will ever forget the cowardly terrorist acts of Sept. 11 only further aggravated the economic downturn.

Preliminary estimates for 2001 - and I might stress that they are very preliminary paint a picture that many of us expected. While Missouri's unemployment rate rose in 2001, it still remains relatively low. However, job growth began to decline rapidly after the beginning of the year. Missouri's personal income continued to grow, but at a much slower pace.

Missouri's exports to foreign countries, which had been rebounding over the last two years, edged downward again, and manufacturing jobs have decreased by 6.18 percent or nearly 25,000 jobs.

Let's take a look at preliminary statistics regarding economic conditions in Missouri in 2001:

Employment/unemployment: Em-ployment in Missouri peaked in January, but data show a rapid loss of jobs throughout the remainder of the year: approximately 2 percent, or 56,700 nonfarm payroll jobs. Missouri's unemployment rate shot up eight-tenths of a percentage point in January and has re-mained around the 4 percent mark since.

Job growth: Over the past year, Missouri payrolls have lost more than 47,000 jobs, or about 1.7 percent. Man-ufacturing and business services together have lost almost 43,000 jobs.

Cost of living: Missouri's 94.2 cost-of-living index during the first half of 2000 was low enough to earn the state a fifth-place ranking among 46 participating states. That means that, on average, prices in Missouri are about 94 percent of what they are at the national level.

Personal income: Personal income growth has slowed, but it continued to grow at a rate of 0.73 percent in the first two quarters of 2001, compared with a slightly higher national growth of 0.83 percent. Missouri continues to rank 18th nationally in personal income, and it ranks above all neighboring states except for Illinois.

Exports: As of the second quarter of 2001, Missouri exports to foreign nations were down nearly 4 percent from the previous year.

New and expanding businesses: More than 100 businesses announced plans to move or expand in Missouri in 2001, creating more than 10,500 new jobs.

There is a lot of speculation about how long this recession will last and its ultimate impact on Missouri's economy. We really don't know.

But based on our knowledge of current economic conditions and how past economic downturns have impacted Mis-souri, most consensus forecasts expect the economic slowdown to last until late summer of 2002.

Regardless, I believe Missouri's excellent quality of life, highly skilled and well-trained work force, central location and diverse economy will provide our state with an advantage in challenging times like these and in better times yet to come again.

(Joseph L. Driskill is director of the Missouri Department of Economic Development.)