CVB Travel: Travel industry may hinge on war's length, terror attacks

Susan Wade is the public relations manager with the Springfield Convention & Visitors Bureau.

Trying to forecast the 2003 travel and tourism season is like looking through a cloudy crystal ball.

There's no way to foretell what 2003 will bring because uncertainty is the catch phrase of the year, said Jerry Henry, chairman of a Branson research committee and local expert on travel trends.

"It would be foolish to try and make specific predictions for the upcoming year," Henry said. "There's no way to predict what's going to happen in 2003 because there are so many outstanding variables."

War in Iraq, the threat of terrorist attacks, a weak economy and high gas prices could mean travelers hunker down and stay home, Henry said.

Or maybe people will travel. Who knows?

"You still have to have stress release," Henry said. "You still have to have family time."

What tends to happen when the country faces tough issues is people travel but change their traveling behavior. Taking shorter trips, staying closer to home and booking trips closer to departure dates are common.

That's what happened in the wake of the 2001 terrorist attacks in New York City and Washington, D.C., and one reason the Ozarks' travel industry bounced back quickly.

In 2002, while many parts of the country were still experiencing declines in travel due to the terrorist attacks, Springfield saw hotel and motel room demand increase by 2.2 percent and Branson tourism tax revenues hit a record level.

Despite the 2002 rebound, there are too many issues on the table to make 2003 predictions regarding any aspect of the travel and tourism industry, said Tracy Kimberlin, executive director of the Springfield Convention and Visitors Bureau, the agency responsible for marketing the city as a travel destination.

"We're preparing for the worst and hoping for the best," Kimberlin said. "Compared to other parts of the country, this region fared well after the terrorist attacks. We hope the Ozarks can be just as resilient this year. More than that, we hope the war goes away, the economy stabilizes, terrorists leave us alone and gas prices get back to normal."

The bureau is keeping a wary eye on all those factors and is prepared to beef up programs encouraging travel to the Ozarks, if necessary, Kimberlin said.

If war with Iraq is short-lived, 2003 could be a good year, Henry said. If, however, the war is drawn out and terrorist attacks occur, travel in the United States could suffer greatly.

"I think it would pretty much bring all travel to a standstill," Henry said.