It’s hard to imagine a closer statewide finish for both parties in the 2016 Missouri presidential primary, but local voters were more definitive for their party frontrunners.
Less than 1,800 votes separated both the Republican and Democratic state races by press time before absentee, provisional and overseas ballots were finalized.
The numbers tell the tale. According to the Missouri secretary of state’s unofficial results as of March 17, the Republican tally was Donald Trump: 382,093 votes, 40.8 percent; and Ted Cruz: 380,367 votes, 40.6 percent. The Democrats were split between Hillary Clinton, 310,602 votes, 49.6 percent; and Bernie Sanders, 309,071 votes, 49.4 percent.
With margins of victory less than half a percentage point, it legally opens the door to recount requests in Missouri.
But drill down to Greene County, and the contrast was stark.
Vermont Sen. Sanders cleared 61 percent of the Democratic votes compared to 38 percent for former U.S. Secretary of State and first lady Clinton. Texas Sen. Cruz was the conservative favorite in Greene County, taking home 52 percent of the votes, while Trump received 32 percent of the Republican total.
Cruz led all Greene County vote getters with 26,784, while Sanders collected more votes, 17,403, than Trump’s 16,649.
Delegating support
Drury University political science professor Daniel Ponder said Missouri’s winners are in enviable positions because their delegate leads are approaching insurmountable levels.
“The rules matter,” Ponder said. “The delegates are now in Hillary’s favor, and they are now in Trump’s favor.”
Following the March 15 primaries, Clinton had 1,599 delegates, including 467 superdelegates, while Sanders had secured 844, including 26 superdelegates. About half of the 4,763 Democratic delegates needed are still up for grabs.
Delegates are party representatives locked in to vote for the candidate to which they’re awarded, at least for the first vote in favor of the person who will represent the party’s chosen candidate. Ponder said superdelegates are party officials and loyalists, often elected officials, who can change their votes at the party convention.
Republicans don’t play the superdelegate game.
To win the GOP nomination, 1,237 delegates are needed. Trump held 621 after March 15, while Cruz had 396 and Ohio Gov. John Kasich controlled 138. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who dropped out after losing his home state, still holds 168 delegates.
“It will be interesting to see where those delegates go,” said Ponder. “Will those go to Cruz or Kasich or be split? There could be a brokered convention.”
Often once a clear candidate emerges as a favorite, the party rallies around that person. While Trump has taken a commanding lead, Ponder said many in the party are concerned about his polarizing personality, and a brokered or contested convention is possible if momentum coalesces behind Cruz or Kasich in the coming months.
One possible strategy states could adopt is to favor the winner-takes-all approach, but he said that’s risky too.
“That could backfire if Trump continues to win,” Ponder said.
An economic view
While the paths needed to secure their party’s nomination come into focus for the candidates, the tax policies they propose to implement once elected may not blaze a clear trail to economic prosperity, said David Mitchell, director of Missouri State University’s Bureau of Economic Research.
“I don’t think Ted Cruz’s taxes are high enough unless you’re going to significantly cut the size of government. I’m all for lower taxes, but low taxes don’t do any good if you’re spending the same amount of money,” Mitchell said. “Donald Trump’s economic policies, I think, are a disaster. I think Bernie Sanders’ policies are a complete disaster, and I think Hillary Clinton is just more crony capitalism.”
According to an analysis by nonprofit, nonpartisan political research group Ballotpedia, Democrats Clinton and Sanders view the current tax code “as the primary theater of battle over income inequality,” while Republicans Cruz, Kasich and Trump largely trumpet tax cuts – irrespective of income levels – as a way to create economic growth.
Mitchell said the economy is served best when everyone contributes and the overall tax burden is low.
“I think the best type of tax is one that is broad-based,” he said, pointing to income and sales taxes.
Mitchell said it doesn’t much matter which type is favored provided there is not a litany of loopholes or exceptions.
“If you want taxes to have as small of an impact as possible, you want them to be on as broad of a number of businesses and services as you can get them,” he said.
Springfield event venue Belamour LLC gained new ownership; The Wok on West Bypass opened; and Hawk Barber & Shop closed on a business purchase that expanded its footprint to Ozark.
