Chamber: MSA's growth could mean more retail development

What does a list of retailers such as Best Buy, Lowe's, Target, Staples, Applebee's, and Petsmart have to do with the 1990 population of Webster County? You could probably think about that one all day and not come up with much of a solution. However, the two actually go hand-in-hand.

First, a quick definition: When referring to the Springfield population, it is intended to represent the Springfield Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), or, for short, metro area. MSAs are comprised of counties in a metropolitan setting focused around a central city. The included counties must show strong internal, social and economic ties. Also, the federal government decides which counties are included in each MSA.

The 1990 census listed the Springfield metro area's population as 240,593. At that time, the MSA included only Greene and Christian counties. In 1992 the federal government (Office of Management & Budget) officially added Webster County population: 23,753.

So in 1990, our metro area population appeared to be about 241,000. In 1992, our metro area population was more than 264,000.

Then in 1993, a boom began in Springfield. Building on the success of the retail area surrounding the Battlefield Mall, retailers such as Circuit City, Kohl's, Chili's, Office Max and Home Depot started popping up in south Springfield. Why? What is the correlation between some 23,000 people and retail?

The answer is the magic number of 250,000. These national retail stores and restaurants know they need a metro market of 250,000 people or larger. When searching for new locations, if the MSA isn't 250,000-plus, it isn't considered.

Since then, retail development has exploded and spread out across the city and the metro area. Our population has continued to grow steadily. In fact, right now it rests at 331,379 (2001 estimate). Retail sales are more than $5.5 billion annually for the metro area and have grown 160 percent since 1991. Things look good. But in economic development we are always looking ahead.

Lawrence and Polk counties might be the next big step. Right on the verge of being added to the MSA, each county is showing an increased tie to the central city of Springfield. And that's what the federal government looks for when considering inclusion into an MSA. One of the main criteria is a sliding scale of commuting and the urban/rural makeup. Simply put the lower the percentage of people living inside some city limit boundary, the higher the rate of commuting into the central city would need to be. Conversely the higher the percentage of urbanization, the less commuting is needed.

Lawrence County's current population is 35,651 and Polk County's is 27,458. Those totals combined with the current MSA population would place the metro area at 394,488.

At current growth rates, the population would top 400,000 by the 2002 estimate released in the spring of 2003. Now that's not to say that 400,000 would trigger another explosion in retail and other development, but it can't hurt to move above major increments.

In fact, if Lawrence and Polk counties are added to the MSA and current growth rates continue we should reach 500,000 by 2015. Half a million in population should be another magic number and create additional opportunities.

In the meantime, we will enjoy the success of 250,000 and eat dinner at Chili's, play with the gadgets at Best Buy, and shop at Target. But we'll have to wait a while, maybe a long while, for Macy's, Nordstrom's and Saks Fifth Avenue. Those type of retailers only locate in metros with population in excess of 1 million. That's the price we'll pay for living in something other than a major metro area. But compared against all the advantages, it is a small price to pay, especially for the 331,379 of us who call Springfield home.

For additional information on populations and retail sales in the Springfield area visit www.business4springfield.com

(Ryan Mooney is economic development program coordinator for the Springfield Area Chamber of Commerce.)