Buyer confidence may portend less-than-merry Christmas

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Local retailers are forecasting less-than-outstanding holiday sales for 2002. And the picture isn't any prettier on the national level.|ret||ret||tab|

A study released Oct. 28 by the University of Michigan Consumer Survey and cited in the Wall Street Journal online said consumer sentiment has plummeted to its "lowest level recorded since 1993." |ret||ret||tab|

Economic downturns, diminished household wealth, anxiety over military conflict with Iraq and persistent corporate misdeeds were chief consumer concerns, the survey yielded.|ret||ret||tab|

According to a retail forecast provided by the National Retail Federation, it anticipated 2002 holiday sales in November and December "to increase 4 percent on a year-over-year basis" in the general merchandise category. Retail sales were up 5.6 percent year to year in 2001. |ret||ret||tab|

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Online buys|ret||ret||tab|

Online holiday sales are expected to fare substantially better, according to an online report from Dow Jones Business News. Sales are projected "to total $38.2 billion world-wide, a 48.4 percent increase from the same period last year."|ret||ret||tab|

On the other hand, Forrester Research Inc., in its online report, said, "online sales in the third quarter fell to $17 billion." This came after two consecutive quarters of $20 billion in sales and "marks the first decline in e-commerce history."|ret||ret||tab|

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The voice of academia|ret||ret||tab|

"The most recent survey of consumer sentiment that I saw was pretty poor," said Bill Rohlf, professor of economics at Drury University. "That probably doesn't bode very well for what the Christmas season is likely to be."|ret||ret||tab|

"The thing about it that was interesting to me is not just that it was low, but it was much lower than people who track this on a regular basis expected it to be. That wasn't a good signal," Rohlf added.|ret||ret||tab|

A trend toward moderately increasing disposable incomes and favorable credit card interest rates should help boost Christmas spending, said Tom Wyrick, professor of economics at Southwest Missouri State University.|ret||ret||tab|

How consumers feel about their overall wealth status relative to savings and current income, and whether their jobs are secure, however, would be factors spurring pessimism toward releasing holiday cash, Wyrick said. These concerns are compounded by foreign affairs and stock market uncertainty, terrorism and the possibility of more large-scale industry scandals.|ret||ret||tab|

"I would say the balance of things would be a little bit better this season than last, but still not euphoric," Wyrick added.|ret||ret||tab|

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Retailing predictions|ret||ret||tab|

Mike Murphy, store manager at Nixa's Wal-Mart Supercenter, was pragmatic in his hopes for a consumer holiday splurge. "When it gets cold, people think Christmas." He anticipated up to a 40-percent increase in sales for the last quarter, even with six shopping days less because of Thanksgiving coming later than last year.|ret||ret||tab|

There wouldn't be any pricing pressures to adjust prices downward at K-Mart, said Dave Pickett, store manager at the South Campbell store. The local economy is strong enough and most stores anticipated early in the year that "it was not going to be a spectacular Christmas season" so they're not overloaded with inventory.|ret||ret||tab|

That Springfield doesn't have the pronounced up and down economic cycles typical of communities where heavy manufacturing dominates is to its advantage, said Rohlf. |ret||ret||tab|

Another advantage for Springfield is its position in southwest Missouri, said Allen Kunkel, manager of regional development for the Chamber of Commerce. While he said the season should be challenging to retailers, the city's "pull factor" of drawing consumers from other communities is strong.|ret||ret||tab|

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