Business conditions index shows positive signs

Business conditions in Missouri are looking up for the third consecutive month, according to information reported Oct. 1 by Creighton University.

The Omaha, Neb.-based university's monthly Business Conditions Index hit 53.7 for Missouri in September, up from 52 in August and 52.6 in July. Any number above 50 indicates expansion.

For September, Missouri's new orders index hit 64.4, the production index was 65.4, and delivery lead-time index was at 50.5. The state's inventory index was 42.3, while the employment index was 46.2. A Creighton economics professor said that the below-average employment index is to be expected.

"In August, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data, Missouri's unemployment rate rose to a regional high of 9.5 percent, but based on our surveys over the past several months, I expect the job outlook to improve in the months ahead," Creighton economics professor Ernie Goss said in a news release. "This will stimulate the discouraged ... to once again enter the job search process, and will cause state's jobless rate to rise by another 0.2 percent by the end of 2009 even as the employment outlook improves."

Missouri's index numbers are consistently above the U.S. average; the national overall index is 52.6, while the new orders index is at 60.8.

Perhaps the most important indicator of a turnaround - the confidence index - hit 75 for Missouri in September, marking the seventh consecutive month in positive territory.