Branson house market on pace for record year

|tab|

The Branson area housing market appears to be steadily surpassing 2002, a record-setting year, according to the third quarter 2003 Cooper Appraisal Newsletter, which is authored by Chris Cooper, certified general appraiser. |ret||ret||tab|

The latest Tri-Lakes Multiple Listing Service data shows that year-to-date sales increased 16.8 percent, compared to the first three quarters of 2002. With 1,196 total homes sold in the Tri-Lakes MLS system for the first nine months of 2003, compared to 1,024 in the first nine months of 2002, the market seems to be on track to set a record for local residential real estate sales in the Tri-Lakes area. |ret||ret||tab|

Sales over the last two years have nearly doubled the number of homes sold in the Tri-Lakes MLS system in the "boom years" of the early 1990s. With the Tri-Lakes MLS area edging close to 17 percent above the pace in 2002, Branson's insulated economy fares better than the nationwide economy, Cooper wrote. |ret||ret||tab|

Nationwide increases in home sales appear to be a product of household growth, low interest rates and an improving nationwide economy, the newsletter stated. |ret||ret||tab|

Recent slight interest rate increases appear to be marginal when considering rates of the past year. According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional fixed-rate mortgage was 6.15 percent in September, compared to 6.26 percent in August and 6.09 percent in September 2002. |ret||ret||tab|

"Many industries, including the hard-hit manufacturing sector, are now facing increased demand, and we can expect strong economic growth into next year," said David Lereah, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, in the newsletter. "With no inflation in sight, we don't expect the Federal Reserve to move on interest rates until the third quarter of 2004."|ret||ret||tab|

With the Branson area's affordable nature and a forecast of a growing economy and stable interest rates, the remainder of the year and 2004 looks promising. |ret||ret||tab|

As has been the case in previous years, the majority of the homes sold in the Stone and Taney county markets cost less than $175,000. Homes that cost under $125,000 rank at the top of Cooper's "What's Hot" list, a listing developed based on the number of houses sold in the past three quarters in relation to the number of houses listed for sale in the same price range. For example, with 137 homes sold between $75,000 and $125,000 in Stone County and 156 listed as of October, the ratio is 87.8 percent. This would indicate that the demand for homes in this price category and location is very good, and sellers could be somewhat more conservative and hold to existing list price.|ret||ret||tab|

In Taney County, in the more than-$275,000 market, there are 78 homes listed for sale, and only 15 homes in this category have sold in the last nine months. Sellers in that category should think of ways that their homes can be among the few sold in that category, Cooper wrote.|ret||ret||tab|

Cooper Appraisals anticipates that home sales will be strong but stable in 2004 with the Tri-Lakes area being an affordable option in comparison to other parts of the country. Some market segments, though, should be clearly better than others for the competitive real estate market.|ret||ret||tab|

Regarding questions related to a "bubble" in respect to home values nationwide, economics illustrate that on a local level, housing values generally rise with increasing income levels. With the Branson area's stable wage levels, the newsletter said, property values have remained stable with no over-appreciation. |ret||ret||tab|

Because of that, the chances of a "bubble" bursting with respect to home prices is relatively rare and not a concern for the Tri-Lakes market. |ret||ret||tab|

The potential for sharp rises in foreclosure percentages is a significant concern for lenders. |ret||ret||tab|

National economists predict that the large amount of sub-prime loans over the past two years and the large amount of minimum downpayment loans may bring a sharp increase in the number of homes foreclosed on in the next several years. This could result in more stringent loan requirements in the form of higher interest rates, stricter qualifying guidelines or increases appraisal scrutiny. |ret||ret||tab|

On the other side of the issue, there also may be a flood of repossessed houses on the market. |ret||ret||tab|

Specific data on the commercial and residential real estate markets in the Branson Tri-Lakes area is available at www.cooperappraisal.net.|ret||ret||tab|

[[In-content Ad]]