Black Friday and Beyond

Area retailers are ready for another holiday season. Merchandise is on order, and seasonal workers are on board. The wild card is the number of shoppers - and the amount of money they'll spend.

National sales predictions are bleak. The National Retail Federation expects a 3.2 percent drop in holiday sales compared to last year. According to NRF, U.S. shoppers should spend an average of $683 each this year, compared to an estimated average of $705 per shopper during the 2008 winter holidays.

Some local retailers are predicting their businesses will not see a sales decline during the holiday months, which generally cover November and December.

Eunice Wallar, owner of Waverly House Gifts & Gallery at 2031 S. Waverly Ave., is preparing for flat holiday sales. While NRF research indicates shoppers are planning on spending a couple of dollars less on decorations - $40.75 in 2009, compared to $43.45 in 2008 - Wallar said there hasn't been a significant change in sales of decorative items in the store's year-round Christmas room.

But Hai Owrey, store manager at Springfield's Hobby Lobby, 1535 E. Battlefield Road, said his corporate office made some inventory changes in anticipation of lower demand for holiday decorations.

"Instead of getting 24 of one type of ornament, I can see that maybe this year, we're only getting 20 in," Owrey said, adding that he, too, expects flat sales compared to the 2008 season.

Shoppers' spending concerns may actually work in Hobby Lobby's favor. The NRF study notes 17 percent of Americans surveyed said they're planning on making gifts this year.

Owrey said he's spoken with shoppers who are doing just that - making scrapbooks to send to family in the military or hand-decorating ornaments.

"The economy is not looking so good for most people, but they still want to be in a gift-giving mood," Owrey said.

NRF research indicates shoppers are looking for bargains this season. More than half of the people surveyed said savings would determine where they shopped. When it comes to choosing a store, sales and price discounts were the most important factor in 43 percent of surveyors' decisions, while 13 percent said everyday low prices were most important. And 70 percent of holiday shoppers will make some of their purchases at discount stores.

That's good news for Rick Thompson, who with wife Chris owns Designers Overstock, 5231 N. 17th St. in Ozark. He expects November and December sales to come in 20 percent higher than sales in the same time last year. That's partly because there is more to sell; at the end of October the store added 6,000 square feet by leasing 1,200 square feet of space that was recently vacated when its Hopedale Plaza neighbor, Flanagan's Avon, downsized.

Thompson said the concept behind his store, which resells overstock merchandise such as clothing, shoes, accessories and housewares purchased by the truckload, is the main reason he expects an increase in sales.

"We sell at wholesale and below," Thompson said. "Whatever is happening in the economy is helping us, because people are looking for a deal."

Another retailer expecting to see a sales boost is Christian Hutson, who with wife Jessica owns Just For Him at 1334 E. Battlefield Road.

Hutson predicts sales in November and December will be 3 percent higher than the same months in 2008.

"We had a horrible Christmas last year. Our store specializes in men's gifts and tobacco products, and last year, I think ... a lot of gifts for dad were put on the back burner," he said. "Hopefully, this year, dads are going to get a gift, too."

Hutson said he's already seeing Christmas shoppers out this season. He and Wallar said some are purchasing higher-end items.

The difference between those purchases now and in previous years, Wallar said, is that shoppers are more carefully considering purchases of higher-priced merchandise.

"They may come back and look at it several times before they buy," she said.

Wallar has noticed another change in shopping habits during the last couple of years.

"People seem to be using layaway now, especially with the larger items, she said.