Opinion: Springfield region’s winning the net migration game

It’s been said anecdotally that many people, i.e., workers and retirees, are moving into the Springfield region from the coasts.

I drilled down on the latest U.S. Census Bureau data to find out exactly where. I love how data tell stories and reveal experiences. Pack your bags, we’re going on a journey through Census data.

On the whole, the Springfield metropolitan statistical area gained an estimated 2,729 people moving in from the other metro areas in the United States, between 2014 and 2018, the latest Census Bureau data available. That’s not as high of a net number as I would have thought.

A Census spreadsheet of migration patterns for all 384 metro areas shows an estimated 10,253 people moved to the Springfield area from the other metros and an estimated 7,524 moved out of the local region from those same metros during that 2014-18 span.

SGF attracts
Where would you guess the most people relocate from when planting roots in the Springfield area?

If you said St. Louis, you’re right. But not only by volume; we’re also posting the greatest net population gain from the region around The Lou – by 2,100 people. It’s a completely different story on the other side of the state. In that span, the Springfield area lost a net 347 people to the Kansas City region.

By volume, here’s where the most people moved from:

1. St. Louis, MO-IL: 3,451
2. Kansas City, MO-KS: 2,183
3. Columbia: 1,000
4. Joplin: 740
5. Jefferson City: 688

Yes, they’re all in-state metros. Basically, we’re swapping cities here in Missouri. So, these next five we’ll look at the metro areas across the U.S. where the most people moved from:

1. Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX: 434
2. Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI: 322
3. Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR-MO: 322
4. Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario CA: 239
5. Anchorage, Alaska: 234

You read that right, Anchorage. Funny thing there is that the population flow is 100% in one direction: Not a single individual moved up there from Springfield in that span. Also note, there’s just one coastal state represented in that MSA migration.

Population counterflow
So, we already know Springfield is an attractive market to St. Louisans. But where are we losing people to?

By volume, here’s where the most people in the Springfield area moved to:

1. Kansas City, MO-KS: 2,530
2. St. Louis, MO-IL: 1,351
3. Columbia: 491
4. Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX: 464
5. Jefferson City: 440

We see a similar in-state pattern. It’s worth noting the next three: We lost 344 people across state lines to Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, Arkansas, and 280 people to Tulsa, Oklahoma. Perhaps surprisingly, 220 locals moved to the Durham-Chapel Hill area of North Carolina.

Our last stop on the Census data dive is from a net perspective. For these, we’ll extend to the Top 10 metros.

Springfield region’s net migration gains:

1. St. Louis, MO-IL: 2,100
2. Columbia: 509
3. Joplin: 464
4. Jefferson City: 248
5. Anchorage, AK: 234
6. Orlando, Kissimmee, Sanford, FL: 171
7. Coeur d’Alene, ID: 156
8. Carbondale-Marion, IL: 156
9. San Diego-Carlsbad, CA: 131
10. Jonesboro, AR: 124

Springfield region’s net migration losses:

1. Kansas City, MO-KS: (347)
2. Peoria, IL: (244)
3. Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO: (162)
4. Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX: (141)
5. Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA: (124)
6. Austin-Round Rock, TX: (118)
7. Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clear Water, FL: (96)
8. Tulsa, OK: (94)
9. Oklahoma City, OK: (88)
10. Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island, FL: (84)

This is just the tip of the iceberg. Yes, that one in the Anchorage, Alaska, area.

I’m anxious for the Census Bureau’s next round of migration data.

Springfield Business Journal Editorial Vice President Eric Olson can be reached at eolson@sbj.net.