Migration Population: Greene, Christian lead Springfield MSA’s population growth

Newly released data from the U.S. Census Bureau confirm the trend; the Springfield area’s population is getting bigger.

Based on estimates from 2010-15, Christian County was the third-fastest growing county in the state with an estimated 7 percent population growth – 5,424 new residents – behind Platte and Boone counties. Also, Greene County ranked third by number of new residents, adding an estimated 12,691 people in 2015, behind Clay and St. Charles counties.

“Growth is not much of a surprise to us,” Springfield City Manager Greg Burris said. “The population increase is something we’re used to now.”

Census data from 2010 show  Missouri’s southwest region gained about 100,000 people in the previous decade, with Christian County experiencing 42.6 percent growth.

Burris said two factors are driving local increases: a national trend toward urban populations and more attention given to the Springfield-area's quality of life.

“We have clean water and air, great schools, we are a medical hub, we have 45,000 college students – a lot of things other communities would love to have,” Burris said.

A wide net
Four of the five counties in the Springfield metropolitan statistical area – Greene, Christian, Polk and Webster – added some 19,000 residents over the past five years, according to estimates released last month. Dallas County represented the lone loss of 2 percent, or about 343 residents.

In fall 2012, the Springfield Area Chamber of Commerce and Springfield Business Development Corp. performed a survey as part of the Talent Attraction Initiative to determine what factors promote a move to the Queen City. Chamber Economic Development Marketing Coordinator Rachael Snow said the survey pinpointed job seekers of high need, such as information technology, health care, engineering and professional services.

“We wanted to know what they knew about Springfield and what would influence their decision for relocation,” Snow said, noting the survey targeted populations between 50 miles and 750 miles from Springfield, encompassing major cities such as Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas and Denver. “We wanted to make sure we were getting a good variety of feedback.”

The results reinforce Burris’ notion Springfield is gaining stature outside its own doorstep. While 19 percent of the respondents said they had some degree of familiarity with the area, 40 percent said they would consider relocating to Springfield.

Data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey bear out the chamber’s casting of a wide net. While Greene County gains and loses the most volume of residents to other counties in the state, residents also arrive and depart in droves from unexpected and far-flung locales. From 2009-13, for instance, the county gained 312 residents from Macoupin County, Ill., located northeast of St. Louis, and lost 324 to Clark County, Wash., located near Portland, Ore.

Megan Short, who handles social media outreach for job seekers for the Missouri Career Center’s Ozark Region, said while inquiries frequently come from the Pacific coast, she hasn’t noticed an influx of interest from any one particular area.

“There are people moving from out of state to Missouri every which direction at this point,” she said.

Long game
Because it’s both a long-term and longtime trend, Burris says he isn’t focused on the raw growth beyond the ongoing challenge to provide additional services. Instead, he said he’s concerned with certain demographics within that burgeoning population, specifically a disappearing middle class, a pending retirement wave of baby boomers and managing a 26 percent poverty rate.

“How do you address that? Attract and retain the talent to feed the economic engine,” Burris said. “Do what we do so well in Springfield, which is promote entrepreneurship, and promote those jobs that pay a living wage.”

Short said the current low unemployment rate – 3.7 percent in April – allows the career center to focus more on filling upper-level and skilled positions in many of the same fields targeted by the chamber’s survey, in addition to steady demand for entry-level production and manufacturing jobs.

“[Employers] are struggling with the lower number, but are more impressed with the quality of the applicants,” she said. “Right now we have quality, just not quantity.”

As the quantity of residents increases, Burris anticipates how the city will respond to the next national trend, when the demographics of Springfield’s population begin to diversify.

“We’re at the tail end of some of those – we’re not the first community that will see the racial and ethnic changes that are occurring,” Burris said. “The communities that respond well – that are welcoming to talent regardless of age, race, religion or any of that – are the communities that are going to win in the long term.

“Will we be a welcoming community? I certainly hope we will be.”